China's slow bleed China's slow bleed http://www.federatedhermes.com/us/static/images/fhi/fed-hermes-logo-amp.png http://www.federatedhermes.com/us/daf\images\insights\article\shanghai-shipping-terminal-small.jpg August 28 2024 August 28 2024

China's slow bleed

For investors looking for a change in direction, China's Third Plenum was underwhelming.

Published August 28 2024
My Content

China watchers have long set store by the outcome of the Third Plenum. This latest meeting was a disappointment, with the country’s leaders setting priorities other than growth.   

China appears to be at an inflection point. After years of roaring growth, the pandemic and its aftermath have introduced (relative) stagnation even as hopes for peaceful cooperation between China and the West appear to be faltering. Demographics, likewise, remain a cause for concern, given the country’s ageing workforce and negligible immigration.

Finally, the government’s proactive economic policy stance seems to have changed too. Here, the mantra is no longer growth at all costs. Instead, the Chinese Communist Party’s doctrine of “common prosperity” and competition with the West now take center stage.

This, at least, was the message when the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee met in July for its Third Plenum meeting. Historically, these gatherings have resulted in new growth-oriented policy announcements – and, this time around, investors had hoped to hear party leadership articulate a new way forward for the economy.

Yet little to nothing from the meeting changed the narrative. Rather than switching focus to jump-starting the economy, the party’s 22,000-character document which summarized the plenum spoke of increasing the state’s influence and channeling state resources into strategic sectors.

While this matters less for the US, it’s potentially a big deal for Europe given the importance of current trading relationships.

A slowing economy

The Chinese economy has slowed further in recent months. Exports remain a bright spot, having largely recovered from Covid, but the property market is in a funk, mired by years of overcapacity and misallocation. Within China, sentiment remains weak, and the slowdown in consumer spending is problematic.

The Bank of China may have lowered rates but not by enough to alter the course of an economy burdened with a moribund property market and subdued sentiment. The official response has been supply-related rather than to stimulate demand.

Even so, we don’t believe we are seeing the “Japanification” of China. After all, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development still projects China’s GDP to grow at the third-fastest rate in the G20 this year (4.9%) and next (4.5%), behind only India and Indonesia.

Likewise, China’s push for common prosperity is bearing some fruit and Xi remains highly popular among the broader population. The government claims to have eradicated extreme poverty as of 2021, and medical coverage became universal in recent years. While not yet universal, pension coverage has been expanded greatly as well.

A path forward for investors

So, how should investors think about current opportunities in China? Even at its current 25% weighting in the emerging markets index (it was once as high as 45%), the country is too big to ignore. And any bold, outlier position on China will likely result in a sizeable departure from the index in a way that would not be the case with a smaller country.

For now, a slow-moving deflationary and subdued-sentiment cloud hangs over China – with value-oriented, dividend-paying State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) the main beneficiaries. In fact, value has trounced growth in strides, with the MSCI China Value Index returning an annualized -9.01% versus -19.62% annualized for growth over the past three years. Even year-to-date, value is still up 6.67% while MSCI China Growth has declined 1.63%.  

Entrepreneurship has done much less well of late in Xi Jinping’s China. Xi has kept the free market under wraps and seems willing to bear the cost of near-term economic pain in return for longer-term cultural and technological gains. Time will tell whether China can rebalance its economy in a way that will promote growth and yet still focus on common prosperity and geopolitical competition.

In a country burdened by an aging society, a weak property market, and a government focused on geopolitical competition, we term the current state of affairs as a slow bleed of the economy.

Tags Equity . International/Global . Geopolitics .
DISCLOSURES

Views are as of the date above and are subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. These views should not be construed as a recommendation for any specific security or sector.

Issued and approved by Federated Global Investment Management Corp.

The value of investments and income from them may go down as well as up, and you may not get back the original amount invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 

This is a marketing communication. The views and opinions contained herein are as of the date indicated above, are those of author(s) noted above, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or products. These views are as of the date indicated above and are subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. The information herein is believed to be reliable, but Federated Hermes and its subsidiaries do not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This material is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. This document has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. 

This document is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or advisory services. Figures, unless otherwise indicated, are sourced from Federated Hermes. Federated Hermes has attempted to ensure the accuracy of the data it is reporting, however, it makes no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information reported. The data contained in this document is for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon to make investment decisions. 

Federated Hermes shall not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from the use of any information contained on this document. This document is not investment research and is available to any investment firm wishing to receive it. The distribution of the information contained in this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted and, accordingly, persons into whose possession this document comes are required to make themselves aware of and to observe such restrictions. 

United Kingdom: For Professional investors only. Distributed in the UK by Hermes Investment Management Limited (“HIML”) which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered address: Sixth Floor, 150 Cheapside, London EC2V 6ET. HIML is also a registered investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).

European Union: For Professional investors only. Distributed in the EU by Hermes Fund Managers Ireland Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered address: 7/8 Upper Mount Street, Dublin 2, Ireland, DO2 FT59. 

Australia: This document is for Wholesale Investors only. Distributed by Federated Investors Australia Services Ltd. ACN 161 230 637 (FIAS). HIML does not hold an Australian financial services licence (AFS licence) under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ("Corporations Act"). HIML operates under the relevant class order relief from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) while FIAS holds an AFS licence (Licence Number - 433831).

Japan: This document is for Professional Investors only. Distributed in Japan by Federated Hermes Japan Ltd which is registered as a Financial Instruments Business Operator in Japan (Registration Number: Director General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 3327), and conducting the Investment Advisory and Agency Business as defined in Article 28 (3) of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (“FIEA”). 

Singapore: This document is for Accredited and Institutional Investors only. Distributed in Singapore by Hermes GPE (Singapore) Pte. Ltd (“HGPE Singapore”). HGPE Singapore is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. 

United States: This information is being provided by Federated Hermes, Inc., Federated Advisory Services Company, Federated Equity Management Company of Pennsylvania, and Federated Investment Management Company, at address 1001 Liberty Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15222-3779, Federated Global Investment Management Corp. at address 101 Park Avenue, Suite 4100, New York, New York 10178-0002, and MDT Advisers at address 125 High Street Oliver Street Tower, 21st Floor Boston, Massachusetts 02110.

Prices of emerging markets securities can be significantly more volatile than the prices of securities in developed countries and currency risk and political risks are accentuated in emerging markets.

International investing involves special risks including currency risk, increased volatility, political risks, and differences in auditing and other financial standards.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a broad measure of the economy that measures the retail value of goods and services produced in a country.

The MSCI China Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index covering a broad range of the Chinese equity market. Indexes are unmanaged and investments cannot be made in an index.

The MSCI China Growth Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across the Chinese equity markets. The growth investment style characteristics for index construction are defined using five variables: long-term forward EPS growth rate, short-term forward EPS growth rate, current internal growth rate and long-term historical EPS growth trend and long-term historical sales per share growth trend.

The MSCI China Value Index captures large- and mid-cap Chinese securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics. The value investment style characteristics for index construction are defined using three variables: book value to price, 12-month forward earnings to price and dividend yield.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets.

Due to their relatively high valuations, growth stocks are typically more volatile than value stocks.

Value stocks may lag growth stocks in performance, particularly in late stages of a market advance.

There are no guarantees that dividend-paying stocks will continue to pay dividends. In addition, dividend-paying stocks may not experience the same capital appreciation potential as non-dividend-paying stocks.

3531936624