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6 minute read
With noise levels still high, certainty on policy remains elusive.
7 minute read
Stocks are on a tear, but investors may consolidate gains.
Short-term risk-on distractions should give way to long-term economic reality.
3 minute watch
A brief history of quantitative investing.
3 minute read
US hard data will likely weaken in coming months prompting a resumption of Fed easing.
4 minute read
Most municipalities used Covid stimulus wisely and are prepared for cuts in federal funding.
President Javier Milei’s severe austerity package has helped tame the country’s chronic inflation crisis.
5 minute read
Bond investors had plenty to consider during May as momentum shifted
What’s bad for building new cars is good for ABS tied to auto loans and leases.
Treasury yields have cheapened amid the tumult, creating a tactical opportunity.
Equity and fixed-income investors are responding differently to tariff and fiscal policy uncertainty.
OPEC members are not on the same page
For now, Trump is 'just' insulting Fed Chair Powell, as the Treasury market has pushed back.
Many crosscurrents are affecting US rates
But the US dollar's recent decline isn't a sign it will relinquish its status as the reserve currency.
Creditors must weigh the benefits and risks of Trump's push for looser rules.
The sell-off and rebound don't mean investors can’t weather volatility.
A number of factors are likely prompting the move
Bonds display quiet strength as markets back away from risk.
2 minute read
The bond market is a rational voice amid the panic caused by Trump’s tariffs.
Calculated well before the tariff announcement, the US added a robust 228,000 jobs in March.
Despite publicized debate, tax exemption of municipal bond interest is likely safe.
A number of countries are seeing positive ratings trends.
Lowering the 10-year Treasury yield is more difficult than some think.
Were the bond vigilantes behind the recent upheaval in UK government debt?
The Fed kept rates steady, and Chair Powell kept his distance from Trump.
The factors that supported MBS last year are still in place.
A variable order of events will influence bond markets
Three things to watch in 2025.
A small number of people could have a large impact on the economy in 2025.
While it cut rates, uncertainty about Trump policies seem to give the Fed pause.
Three things to watch in 2025
The themes that matter for the coming year.
Powell rebuffed questions about the Fed's future, and his own, but his nebulous comments give the FOMC latitude.
Federated Hermes CIOs react to the U.S. election.
The implications for foreign policy could be far-reaching
Auto ABS delinquency and charge-off rates are rising, but fundamentals remain strong.
A strong quarter for bonds as a patient, diversified approach is rewarded
Frontier countries fuel emerging market debt
Fed easing means fixed-income investments should benefit from both factors of total return: price and income.
The data did not support the large cut, but the Fed did not want to seem behind the curve.
The Fed’s half-point rate cut shows it still thinks the economy can avoid a recession.
The Employee Retirement Income Security Act led to 401(k)s and IRAs.
The markets’ first test is Friday’s August jobs report.
The election likely will determine the fate of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act.
The predictive strength of the curve’s inversion has waned, but not disappeared.
As rate cuts are up for debate, focus on the impact on the short end of the yield curve.
2 minute watch
More goes into the bond selection process than price.
According to the major rating agencies, the high-yield market has migrated higher in quality in recent years.
Congress’s choice to maintain or lapse the TCJA could impact munis.
Municipal bonds are priced with tax protection in mind.
Markets are already pricing in potential November scenarios.
Three things to watch in 2024.
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
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