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2 minute read
10 minute read
Just how flexible will the Trump administration prove to be?
5 minute read
Trump's policy reversals buoy markets.
3 minute read
Equity market neutral strategies offer potential for shelter amid volatility.
Creditors must weigh the benefits and risks of Trump's push for looser rules.
9 minute read
Powell's shoutout to "that great Chicagoan Ferris Bueller" was directed at Trump.
7 minute read
Should investors focus on solid hard data or weak soft data?
The sell-off and rebound don't mean investors can’t weather volatility.
Maintaining our moderate equity overweight as we slip past the reefs.
8 minute read
A historic week of ups and downs left investors "a little queasy."
Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement certainly checks off Rule #1 of his Art of the Deal.
The bond market is a rational voice amid the panic caused by Trump’s tariffs.
Calculated well before the tariff announcement, the US added a robust 228,000 jobs in March.
Adding to stocks, trusting the sailors.
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are more aggressive than the markets were expecting.
4 minute read
Total US money fund assets push past $7 trillion.
Just how much is 'very'?
Concern about Trump’s tariffs and sticky inflation seem to be deflating consumer confidence.
No, this is not a golf-related typo.
Well, then, why are we worried about a recession?
6 minute read
Bessent preaches short-term pain for long-term gains.
As a soft patch emerges, opportunity to add to stocks is getting closer.
Trump's 'unpredictable' approach could work, unless nervous business leaders lay employees off in numbers.
Maybe the Fed’s not done cutting rates this year, after all.
How the emerging trade war might impact the US economy and equities.
1 minute read
Why a short-term economic soft patch should give way to a strong second half for markets.
Market intervention should subside under the new SEC leadership.
No one would eat sausage if they saw how it's made.
Financial markets roiled by developments in D.C.
A near-term slowdown may be emerging, but the longer-term upside is keeping the bears at bay…so far.
2 minute watch
Investors are still drawn to liquidity products in the UK and EU despite the rate cuts.
A look at the new president's agenda.
DeepSeek drives China technology surge and broader market rally.
4 minute watch
There are many reasons why the Fed is likely to keep rates higher for longer.
On the back of solid holiday retail sales, January's were dismal.
A number of countries are seeing positive ratings trends.
Is this the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?
The opening salvos, at least, were fairly tame.
New year starts with hiring and wage growth.
Staying long-term positive through choppy waters.
For liquidity investors, the Fed decision to pause cuts matters more than Powell and Trump locking horns.
Investors got a "wake-up call" this week.
Revisions are possible due to inventory and trade data.
The market cheered strong earnings and a new administration.
The factors that supported MBS last year are still in place.
Preparing for volatility while staying positioned for a positive long-term outcome.
Peak policy uncertainty.
Moderating inflation has restored confidence in the rally.
3 minute watch
The effect on international equities might depend on some Trump policies.
Stocks playing catch-up with bond market sell-off.
The yield curve is back with a vengeance.
Employment strength should keep Fed on the sidelines for some time.
Three things to watch in 2025.
13 minute read
Potential surprises for the market in 2025 seem balanced; staying tilted toward stocks, with cash in reserve for a correction if it comes.
After back-to-back great years, could we expect solid returns in 2025?
Home ownership is no longer accessible to many Americans.
A hawkish Powell and DC standoff interrupt animal spirits.
As the Fed slows its pace, shoppers are increasing theirs.
A small number of people could have a large impact on the economy in 2025.
While it cut rates, uncertainty about Trump policies seem to give the Fed pause.
There's some evidence of a tired market as investors anticipate 2025.
Moving more money out of Europe/Japan to US and emerging markets.
Since the election, consumer and business sentiment has improved.
The US is doing quite well, especially when seen in perspective.
Labor market rebounds from October weather and strikes.
Money market assets have reached a new mark.
If your Thanksgiving guests violate the no-politics discussion rule, shut it down with policy.
Confidence high and stocks higher as election gives way to holidays.
The Aloha Spirit, "the breath of life," may be just what the doctor ordered.
Markets should rise toward 7,500 in 2026 as Trump’s growth agenda plays out and the chess game moves forward.
Will rising post-election confidence boost holiday sales?
A look at the impact Trump's potential policies might have on international markets.
They may be coming, but their supposed benefits are a mirage.
The market may be a little giddy but be careful of snap decisions.
Resurgent inflation and stronger growth render the Fed’s rate-cutting plans uncertain.
The math of dividend investing is one that works out over years.
Deciphering the outlook will depend on understanding we are in a chess game.
With an equally divided electorate, what happened?!
Republicans closing in on 'Red Trifecta.'
Federated Hermes CIOs react to the U.S. election.
An exhausted electorate wonders what the post-election future holds.
Investors, voters and the Fed will likely look past the October jobs report distorted by hurricanes and strikes.
Noisy data and election uncertainty might slow Fed easing.
Bonds sold off, stocks held on and the election drew one week closer.
Monetary and fiscal policy are at the forefront of investors’ minds.
All five worries on the wall are fading as year-end approaches.
The implications for foreign policy could be far-reaching
2025 will come with clarity on interest rates and politics.
Which depend on revenues, which depend on employed consumers.
Will Fed’s data dependency generate market volatility?
With inflation at a 3-year low, the Bank of England might cut rates further by year-end.
Auto ABS delinquency and charge-off rates are rising, but fundamentals remain strong.
A strong quarter for bonds as a patient, diversified approach is rewarded
The bullish stock market seems to be overlooking deteriorating fundamentals.
Amid many uncertainties and difficulties, this market keeps its chin up.
MDT’s recently created Industry Moat factor helps identify under-appreciated companies. Here’s how it works in practice.
Investors look to third quarter results for guidance.
Frontier countries fuel emerging market debt
Remaining cautiously bullish as market grinds into fourth quarter.
Recent good news augurs well for more of the same.
Robust September jobs report supports view the economy is headed for rotation, not recession.
The brief dockworkers' strike re-kindled inflation concerns this week.
Homebuilding stocks are rising, and the housing market may be springing back too.
The longshoremen strike could have far-reaching consequences for the economy and markets.
Interest rates have fallen, but in the liquidity space, the sky has not.
With so much to worry about, it's easy to forget how much is going right.
Weakest Back-to-School spending in 15 years.
Does the rally in Chinese equities from its new stimulus program have legs?
China bazooka follows Fed's big cut, fueling the cyclical trade; U.S. elections on deck.
Fed easing means fixed-income investments should benefit from both factors of total return: price and income.
An early, soft-landing Christmas present with a bow on it?
Federal Reserve ‘recalibrates’ monetary policy.
The Fed announced a punchy 50 basis-point rate.
Loneliness is bad, but solitude is amazing!
Equities regained ground this week amid volatile trading and last week's tech-led sell-off.
On the cusp of cutting rates, the only unknowns are the pace and magnitude.
Rate cuts seem imminent. How might investors adapt their portfolios?
‘R’otation continues, even as ‘R’ecession now in play.
Bouts of volatility need a good tonic.
Fed on track to begin cutting rates later this month.
Five things spooking markets this week.
The markets’ first test is Friday’s August jobs report.
Sticking with our broadening-out call as market moves our way.
And it has parallels to the present day.
Presidential elections typically gather steam after Labor Day.
Markets are yet again pricing in too many Fed cuts.
It's not flying like it would in a recession.
Powell adopts dovish tone in his Jackson Hole keynote
The Fed says the time has come.
Four possible causes of the public's sour mood.
The market has regained its composure - for now.
Will politicians finally address the ballooning U.S. debt and deficit?
Reasons why we think the market will remain volatile and 'The Great Rotation' will continue.
As rate cuts are up for debate, focus on the impact on the short end of the yield curve.
Can electric vehicle sales grow enough to meet the government’s target?
And then what?
Holding to overweights in value and small cap stocks; too early to add back to growth.
The sell-off was sparked by the latest U.S. jobs data, but other things were in the mix.
At historic discounts to large company stocks, small is beautiful unless ... the "R" word.
Weak jobs report should prompt Fed to cut rates in September.
Mid-cap companies can combine the beneficial features of both large and small companies.
The FOMC is back to considering both the labor market and inflation equally as it weighs cuts.
Holding to rotation call as thesis playing out.
And if so, into early-cycle small caps or late-cycle defensive dividend payers?
Combination could chill the Fed longer than the consensus believes.
Investors may balance the dramatic outperformance of a select few stocks with a diversified portfolio.
I'm waiting up here in the cart.
Strong dollar entices Americans across the pond, boosting economies.
Investors are pricing in a Donald Trump victory.
Markets are already pricing in potential November scenarios.
Compare Biden and Trump in terms of policies and the potential investment implications.
The U.S. economy is slowing and inflation declining, but when will the Fed cut rates?
Investors in ‘wait and see’ mode following shocking French election result.
Higher pricing reflects supply and demand in a changing world.
Selectively taking profits in stocks but maintaining positive stance.
Were you able to keep the fireworks strictly to the sky?
Headline payroll strength hides weaker details.
1 minute watch
It could be years before the Fed reaches its 2% target.
The market is standing tall at the end of Q2, but it's hard not to have a few worries.
A gathering of professionals acknowledged five decades of money funds and sifted through issues in their future.
The presidential debate may be the only one in the election cycle.
Fears grow that Brazil will fail to eliminate its deficit.
IG-rated banks are well-positioned to handle the increase in office vacancies.
We bulls expect the rally to finally broaden … but not just yet.
After years of negative sentiment, the outlook for Chinese equities finally appears to be improving.
Our optimistic market outlook has been right, but our 'broadening out' thesis has yet to work.
Filling up at the pump matters to voters.
Despite dovish inflation data, Fed issues hawkish dots.
Can you guess the common threads in each of these four recent news categories?
The small-cap opportunity investors have been waiting for may be at hand.
Nonfarm payroll strength belies weakness in other areas.
The impact of office CRE woes on most cities is mitigated by their diversification of revenue.
We expect a strong summer note season in the municipal markets ahead of the election.
It’s all about the data.
With the Fed on hold and tax collection over, assets resume flowing into liquidity products.
Fed likely to take the summer off.
If so, which decade are we reliving?
If so, it could lead to policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed.
EU elections could result in its first center-right coalition.
The economy is sending confusing messages, but the market keeps lurching ahead due to FOMO.
Baby bust fuels need for immigration and Social Security reform.
Global Market Snapshot
Staying overweight stocks and small caps, even as election looms.
Next year looks far away from here.
Stocks soar as CPI eases despite declining retail sales and confidence.
Encouraging inflation data put rate cuts in key global economies back on the table.
The U.S. Treasury’s plan to buy back some of its securities should have many benefits.
Sticky inflation might slow the Fed, but not the timeliness of extending duration.
It depends on whom you ask.
Other inflation metrics remain sticky and persistent.
This month's election in the Rainbow Nation likely will be the most contested of its democratic era.
If so, they—and investors—stand to benefit.
The Fed may be dovish just by not being hawkish.
Does today’s soft jobs report successfully change the Fed's narrative?
The Fed's game plan hasn't changed, but defeating inflation will take longer than it expected.
The global middle class has an increasing influence on markets.
The group pushed U.S. equities to record highs in 2023 and 2024.
The GRANOLAS group of stocks are Europe’s equivalent of the Mag 7.
Artificial intelligence is unlikely to steal jobs from human workers, but will alter the labor landscape.
After a bumpy 2023, small-cap U.S. stocks are in a good place.
Artificial intelligence’s capabilities and adoption are on track for a huge impact.
The $2.1 trillion in excess consumer savings is dwindling.
A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
Strong back-to-school shopping season bodes well for holiday retail
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
The importance of planning ahead
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
There’s more than one way to forecast a recession. Our investment pros explain the indicators they watch.
Americans returning to pre-pandemic driving habits as gas prices come off the boil.
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