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9 minute read
8 minute read
An exhausted electorate wonders what the post-election future holds.
7 minute read
Investors, voters and the Fed will likely look past the October jobs report distorted by hurricanes and strikes.
3 minute read
Noisy data and election uncertainty might slow Fed easing.
Bonds sold off, stocks held on and the election drew one week closer.
5 minute read
Monetary and fiscal policy are at the forefront of investors’ minds.
4 minute read
The implications for foreign policy could be far-reaching
2 minute watch
2025 will come with clarity on interest rates and politics.
Which depend on revenues, which depend on employed consumers.
Will Fed’s data dependency generate market volatility?
With inflation at a 3-year low, the Bank of England might cut rates further by year-end.
2 minute read
Auto ABS delinquency and charge-off rates are rising, but fundamentals remain strong.
A strong quarter for bonds as a patient, diversified approach is rewarded
6 minute read
The bullish stock market seems to be overlooking deteriorating fundamentals.
Amid many uncertainties and difficulties, this market keeps its chin up.
MDT’s recently created Industry Moat factor helps identify under-appreciated companies. Here’s how it works in practice.
Investors look to third quarter results for guidance.
Frontier countries fuel emerging market debt
Remaining cautiously bullish as market grinds into fourth quarter.
Recent good news augurs well for more of the same.
Robust September jobs report supports view the economy is headed for rotation, not recession.
The brief dockworkers' strike re-kindled inflation concerns this week.
Homebuilding stocks are rising, and the housing market may be springing back too.
The longshoremen strike could have far-reaching consequences for the economy and markets.
Interest rates have fallen, but in the liquidity space, the sky has not.
With so much to worry about, it's easy to forget how much is going right.
Weakest Back-to-School spending in 15 years.
Does the rally in Chinese equities from its new stimulus program have legs?
China bazooka follows Fed's big cut, fueling the cyclical trade; U.S. elections on deck.
Fed easing means fixed-income investments should benefit from both factors of total return: price and income.
An early, soft-landing Christmas present with a bow on it?
Federal Reserve ‘recalibrates’ monetary policy.
The Fed announced a punchy 50 basis-point rate.
Loneliness is bad, but solitude is amazing!
Equities regained ground this week amid volatile trading and last week's tech-led sell-off.
On the cusp of cutting rates, the only unknowns are the pace and magnitude.
Rate cuts seem imminent. How might investors adapt their portfolios?
‘R’otation continues, even as ‘R’ecession now in play.
Bouts of volatility need a good tonic.
Fed on track to begin cutting rates later this month.
Five things spooking markets this week.
The markets’ first test is Friday’s August jobs report.
1 minute read
Sticking with our broadening-out call as market moves our way.
And it has parallels to the present day.
Presidential elections typically gather steam after Labor Day.
Markets are yet again pricing in too many Fed cuts.
It's not flying like it would in a recession.
Powell adopts dovish tone in his Jackson Hole keynote
The Fed says the time has come.
Four possible causes of the public's sour mood.
The market has regained its composure - for now.
Will politicians finally address the ballooning U.S. debt and deficit?
Reasons why we think the market will remain volatile and 'The Great Rotation' will continue.
As rate cuts are up for debate, focus on the impact on the short end of the yield curve.
Can electric vehicle sales grow enough to meet the government’s target?
And then what?
10 minute read
Holding to overweights in value and small cap stocks; too early to add back to growth.
The sell-off was sparked by the latest U.S. jobs data, but other things were in the mix.
At historic discounts to large company stocks, small is beautiful unless ... the "R" word.
Weak jobs report should prompt Fed to cut rates in September.
Mid-cap companies can combine the beneficial features of both large and small companies.
The FOMC is back to considering both the labor market and inflation equally as it weighs cuts.
Holding to rotation call as thesis playing out.
And if so, into early-cycle small caps or late-cycle defensive dividend payers?
Combination could chill the Fed longer than the consensus believes.
Investors may balance the dramatic outperformance of a select few stocks with a diversified portfolio.
I'm waiting up here in the cart.
Strong dollar entices Americans across the pond, boosting economies.
Investors are pricing in a Donald Trump victory.
Markets are already pricing in potential November scenarios.
Compare Biden and Trump in terms of policies and the potential investment implications.
The U.S. economy is slowing and inflation declining, but when will the Fed cut rates?
Investors in ‘wait and see’ mode following shocking French election result.
Higher pricing reflects supply and demand in a changing world.
Selectively taking profits in stocks but maintaining positive stance.
Were you able to keep the fireworks strictly to the sky?
Headline payroll strength hides weaker details.
1 minute watch
It could be years before the Fed reaches its 2% target.
The market is standing tall at the end of Q2, but it's hard not to have a few worries.
A gathering of professionals acknowledged five decades of money funds and sifted through issues in their future.
The presidential debate may be the only one in the election cycle.
Fears grow that Brazil will fail to eliminate its deficit.
IG-rated banks are well-positioned to handle the increase in office vacancies.
We bulls expect the rally to finally broaden … but not just yet.
After years of negative sentiment, the outlook for Chinese equities finally appears to be improving.
Our optimistic market outlook has been right, but our 'broadening out' thesis has yet to work.
Filling up at the pump matters to voters.
Despite dovish inflation data, Fed issues hawkish dots.
Can you guess the common threads in each of these four recent news categories?
The small-cap opportunity investors have been waiting for may be at hand.
Nonfarm payroll strength belies weakness in other areas.
The impact of office CRE woes on most cities is mitigated by their diversification of revenue.
We expect a strong summer note season in the municipal markets ahead of the election.
It’s all about the data.
With the Fed on hold and tax collection over, assets resume flowing into liquidity products.
Fed likely to take the summer off.
If so, which decade are we reliving?
If so, it could lead to policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed.
EU elections could result in its first center-right coalition.
The economy is sending confusing messages, but the market keeps lurching ahead due to FOMO.
Baby bust fuels need for immigration and Social Security reform.
Global Market Snapshot
Staying overweight stocks and small caps, even as election looms.
Next year looks far away from here.
Stocks soar as CPI eases despite declining retail sales and confidence.
Encouraging inflation data put rate cuts in key global economies back on the table.
The U.S. Treasury’s plan to buy back some of its securities should have many benefits.
Sticky inflation might slow the Fed, but not the timeliness of extending duration.
It depends on whom you ask.
Other inflation metrics remain sticky and persistent.
This month's election in the Rainbow Nation likely will be the most contested of its democratic era.
If so, they—and investors—stand to benefit.
The Fed may be dovish just by not being hawkish.
Does today’s soft jobs report successfully change the Fed's narrative?
The Fed's game plan hasn't changed, but defeating inflation will take longer than it expected.
Cooling GDP and accelerating inflation problematic for the Fed.
Inflation, politics and the market's dyspepsia have investors on edge.
What does age have to do with stock performance?
Dividend-oriented stock investing is poised for a resurgence.
With yields rising and P/Es contracting, we need good first-quarter earnings.
Historically, the last leg toward a given inflation target has often been the most difficult.
Re-accelerating inflation and strong labor market delay Fed cuts.
Clear electoral mandate in the world's largest democracy could attract investment and bolster growth.
Much stronger-than-expected jobs report keeps Fed rate cuts on hold.
A healthy labor market coupled with productivity growth could be just the thing.
The Fed is not feeling pressure to cut rates.
With solid growth, sticky inflation and surging stocks, the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates.
The market's having a party, but inflation's a guest that just won't leave.
Holding to overweight stocks call despite consensus moving our way as "Goldilocks Plus" drives market higher
The central bank hasn't cut and yet the market cheers.
Is the equity market rally inconsistent with Fed policy?
The global middle class has an increasing influence on markets.
Investors should think constructively about the “Maturity Wall.”
Signs of resurgent inflation may be gradually countered by a change in the labor market.
China must address its faltering economy with much more fiscal stimulus.
Biden left more questions than answers about his economic policies in his SOTU address.
Can an effervescent market lead to durable gains?
Strong headline gains but weak data underneath.
The group pushed U.S. equities to record highs in 2023 and 2024.
The Fed is in no rush to cut rates.
The GRANOLAS group of stocks are Europe’s equivalent of the Mag 7.
Magnificent Seven continue to outperform.
The end of rolling recessions bodes well for risk assets.
Strong reports have swayed expectations for rate cuts rather than the Fed's constant blaring.
The Fed will look closely at inflation numbers before making any cuts.
What's even better than a Goldilocks market?
Artificial intelligence is unlikely to steal jobs from human workers, but will alter the labor landscape.
Strong wage growth keeps Fed cuts off the bases.
Remaining “Long and Strong” as earnings season and economic data vindicates optimists.
Inflation data reminded us this week that we're not out of the woods yet.
Dismal retail sales in January cap a weak holiday spending season.
Will China replicate the success of Japanese and Korean automakers?
Less fixated on the Fed, the market now focuses on the economy's resilience.
Stocks strong start portends a volatile but positive year.
New investment-grade corporate bond issuance is pouring into the market.
In an economy like this, the Fed is in no hurry
Strong headline gains but a mixed picture beneath the surface.
The Fed removed its tightening bias, opening the door to rate cuts.
After a bumpy 2023, small-cap U.S. stocks are in a good place.
Should keep the Fed on the sidelines in March.
The market continues to move higher, but more breadth would be welcome.
Secular bull market reconfirmed; long-term prospects rising.
27 minute listen
2024 outlook: Part 2.
35 minute listen
2024 outlook: Part 1.
Widening spreads could provide a step back into high yield.
There's plenty of data to cause concern but, for now, even more to prompt a smile.
60 minute watch
The presidential election, geopolitical risks and Fed moves are things to watch in 2024.
Labor market and consumer spending firm, while inflation rises.
What we got right…and wrong…in a volatile year.
A weaker economy and earnings may impact the high-yield market.
Sticky inflation remains a concern, but maybe the path forward is muddling through.
Zero for two out of the gate.
The high-yield market saw a strong 2023.
Artificial intelligence’s capabilities and adoption are on track for a huge impact.
Strong job gains and rising wages keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
The consumer and corporate profits will decide whether the January effect has weight or not.
The Santa Claus Rally advanced most of our 2024 market call into 2023, but there’s plenty of room left for stock pickers as the market rally broadens.
Three things to watch in 2024.
Despite the UAW strike, auto ABS remain strong.
3 minute watch
Consumer spending may be value based in 2024.
Experiences are trumping big-ticket items this holiday season.
Inflation grinds lower, the Fed throws in the towel and holiday spending slows.
Fed rate cuts not coming anytime soon.
But investors aren't going to let you spoil this rally. Next year? We'll see.
Investors must consider timing when evaluating opportunities abroad.
The Fed is seeing the results it hoped for.
As the economy slows across the board, the Fed is done hiking rates.
Market momentum & fundamentals are keeping the rally going.
The markets have swung too far by forecasting multiple Fed rate cuts in 2024.
12 minute read
Expecting market to broaden out as we advance to 5,000 on the S&P.
The 2024 presidential election could trigger an end-of-year rally.
We believe next year could present compelling opportunities within high yield.
Thanksgiving brings increased travel, falling prices and rallying financial markets.
The economy and markets can't take on much more debt without getting sick.
Despite Biden’s terrible polling, Democrats performed well in off-year elections, which should worry the GOP.
Markets are serving up rallies for the holidays.
These stocks are well positioned to thrive in a higher-for-longer environment.
Despite high rates, the large amount of maturing debt in the coming years is not a crisis.
Reasons to believe the equity rally has legs.
The $2.1 trillion in excess consumer savings is dwindling.
Financial markets rally on perceived Fed pause.
With earnings and economic news not as bad as feared, markets can grind higher into year-end.
A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
Strong back-to-school shopping season bodes well for holiday retail
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
The importance of planning ahead
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
There’s more than one way to forecast a recession. Our investment pros explain the indicators they watch.
Americans returning to pre-pandemic driving habits as gas prices come off the boil.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
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