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7 minute read
Stocks are on a tear, but investors may consolidate gains.
8 minute read
The strong labor report for June likely keeps the Fed on pause in July.
4 minute read
The Fed shouldn't want a softening housing market.
3 minute watch
A brief history of quantitative investing.
3 minute read
Facing criticism and uncertainty, Fed Chair Powell makes things worse by dismissing the SEP.
6 minute read
Stocks mount powerful rebound despite policy concerns.
Outside of tech, public capital markets remain robust.
Thanks to advances in computing power, today's quant is not the quant of old.
Sticking with our long-term bullish call on stocks.
AI: It's here. It's everywhere. What's next?
Central bank waiting for fiscal and geopolitical policy developments to unfold before cutting rates.
Storm clouds on the horizon, but confidence is rebounding.
Most municipalities used Covid stimulus wisely and are prepared for cuts in federal funding.
President Javier Milei’s severe austerity package has helped tame the country’s chronic inflation crisis.
2 minute read
US tax bill could hike taxes of foreign holders of US assets.
5 minute read
Bond investors had plenty to consider during May as momentum shifted
2 minute watch
With peak tariff uncertainty behind us, we think stocks should grind higher.
Sticking with our 6,500 year-end S&P 500 forecast.
The question: Has Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating impacted money market funds?
What’s bad for building new cars is good for ABS tied to auto loans and leases.
Treasury yields have cheapened amid the tumult, creating a tactical opportunity.
Just when it seemed certain that retail sales will plummet from strong March/April levels, consumer sentiment has surged.
Equity and fixed-income investors are responding differently to tariff and fiscal policy uncertainty.
The Portfolio Construction Solutions team conducts portfolio analyses across hundreds of portfolios on an ongoing basis.
Competing economic dynamics have made the European Central Bank’s work challenging.
10 minute read
Stock market returning to normal sailing conditions as we emerge from the Straits.
Solid US economic data also helps as equities reverse their April freefall.
Import surge pushes first-quarter GDP into the red.
Many crosscurrents are affecting US rates
Trump's attacks make it harder for the Fed Chair to steer the economy through the storm.
But the US dollar's recent decline isn't a sign it will relinquish its status as the reserve currency.
Trump's policy reversals buoy markets.
Equity market neutral strategies offer potential for shelter amid volatility.
Creditors must weigh the benefits and risks of Trump's push for looser rules.
Should investors focus on solid hard data or weak soft data?
The sell-off and rebound don't mean investors can’t weather volatility.
Maintaining our moderate equity overweight as we slip past the reefs.
The stability of the money markets is shining amid the greater financial turbulence.
The bond market is a rational voice amid the panic caused by Trump’s tariffs.
Calculated well before the tariff announcement, the US added a robust 228,000 jobs in March.
Adding to stocks, trusting the sailors.
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are more aggressive than the markets were expecting.
Total US money fund assets push past $7 trillion.
Concern about Trump’s tariffs and sticky inflation seem to be deflating consumer confidence.
Bessent preaches short-term pain for long-term gains.
As a soft patch emerges, opportunity to add to stocks is getting closer.
Maybe the Fed’s not done cutting rates this year, after all.
How the emerging trade war might impact the US economy and equities.
1 minute read
Why a short-term economic soft patch should give way to a strong second half for markets.
Market intervention should subside under the new SEC leadership.
Financial markets roiled by developments in D.C.
A near-term slowdown may be emerging, but the longer-term upside is keeping the bears at bay…so far.
Investors are still drawn to liquidity products in the UK and EU despite the rate cuts.
DeepSeek drives China technology surge and broader market rally.
4 minute watch
There are many reasons why the Fed is likely to keep rates higher for longer.
On the back of solid holiday retail sales, January's were dismal.
A number of countries are seeing positive ratings trends.
New year starts with hiring and wage growth.
Staying long-term positive through choppy waters.
For liquidity investors, the Fed decision to pause cuts matters more than Powell and Trump locking horns.
Revisions are possible due to inventory and trade data.
The factors that supported MBS last year are still in place.
Preparing for volatility while staying positioned for a positive long-term outcome.
Peak policy uncertainty.
The effect on international equities might depend on some Trump policies.
Stocks playing catch-up with bond market sell-off.
Employment strength should keep Fed on the sidelines for some time.
Three things to watch in 2025.
13 minute read
Potential surprises for the market in 2025 seem balanced; staying tilted toward stocks, with cash in reserve for a correction if it comes.
Home ownership is no longer accessible to many Americans.
As the Fed slows its pace, shoppers are increasing theirs.
A small number of people could have a large impact on the economy in 2025.
While it cut rates, uncertainty about Trump policies seem to give the Fed pause.
Moving more money out of Europe/Japan to US and emerging markets.
Since the election, consumer and business sentiment has improved.
Labor market rebounds from October weather and strikes.
Money market assets have reached a new mark.
Confidence high and stocks higher as election gives way to holidays.
Markets should rise toward 7,500 in 2026 as Trump’s growth agenda plays out and the chess game moves forward.
Will rising post-election confidence boost holiday sales?
A look at the impact Trump's potential policies might have on international markets.
They may be coming, but their supposed benefits are a mirage.
Resurgent inflation and stronger growth render the Fed’s rate-cutting plans uncertain.
The math of dividend investing is one that works out over years.
Deciphering the outlook will depend on understanding we are in a chess game.
Republicans closing in on 'Red Trifecta.'
Federated Hermes CIOs react to the U.S. election.
Investors, voters and the Fed will likely look past the October jobs report distorted by hurricanes and strikes.
Noisy data and election uncertainty might slow Fed easing.
Monetary and fiscal policy are at the forefront of investors’ minds.
9 minute read
All five worries on the wall are fading as year-end approaches.
The implications for foreign policy could be far-reaching
2025 will come with clarity on interest rates and politics.
Will Fed’s data dependency generate market volatility?
With inflation at a 3-year low, the Bank of England might cut rates further by year-end.
Auto ABS delinquency and charge-off rates are rising, but fundamentals remain strong.
A strong quarter for bonds as a patient, diversified approach is rewarded
The bullish stock market seems to be overlooking deteriorating fundamentals.
MDT’s recently created Industry Moat factor helps identify under-appreciated companies. Here’s how it works in practice.
Investors look to third quarter results for guidance.
Frontier countries fuel emerging market debt
Remaining cautiously bullish as market grinds into fourth quarter.
Robust September jobs report supports view the economy is headed for rotation, not recession.
The brief dockworkers' strike re-kindled inflation concerns this week.
Homebuilding stocks are rising, and the housing market may be springing back too.
The longshoremen strike could have far-reaching consequences for the economy and markets.
Interest rates have fallen, but in the liquidity space, the sky has not.
Weakest Back-to-School spending in 15 years.
Does the rally in Chinese equities from its new stimulus program have legs?
China bazooka follows Fed's big cut, fueling the cyclical trade; U.S. elections on deck.
Fed easing means fixed-income investments should benefit from both factors of total return: price and income.
Federal Reserve ‘recalibrates’ monetary policy.
The Fed announced a punchy 50 basis-point rate.
Equities regained ground this week amid volatile trading and last week's tech-led sell-off.
On the cusp of cutting rates, the only unknowns are the pace and magnitude.
Rate cuts seem imminent. How might investors adapt their portfolios?
‘R’otation continues, even as ‘R’ecession now in play.
Fed on track to begin cutting rates later this month.
Five things spooking markets this week.
The markets’ first test is Friday’s August jobs report.
Sticking with our broadening-out call as market moves our way.
Presidential elections typically gather steam after Labor Day.
Markets are yet again pricing in too many Fed cuts.
It's not flying like it would in a recession.
Powell adopts dovish tone in his Jackson Hole keynote
Four possible causes of the public's sour mood.
Will politicians finally address the ballooning U.S. debt and deficit?
Reasons why we think the market will remain volatile and 'The Great Rotation' will continue.
As rate cuts are up for debate, focus on the impact on the short end of the yield curve.
Can electric vehicle sales grow enough to meet the government’s target?
Holding to overweights in value and small cap stocks; too early to add back to growth.
The sell-off was sparked by the latest U.S. jobs data, but other things were in the mix.
Weak jobs report should prompt Fed to cut rates in September.
Mid-cap companies can combine the beneficial features of both large and small companies.
The FOMC is back to considering both the labor market and inflation equally as it weighs cuts.
Holding to rotation call as thesis playing out.
Combination could chill the Fed longer than the consensus believes.
Investors may balance the dramatic outperformance of a select few stocks with a diversified portfolio.
Strong dollar entices Americans across the pond, boosting economies.
Investors are pricing in a Donald Trump victory.
Markets are already pricing in potential November scenarios.
The global middle class has an increasing influence on markets.
The group pushed U.S. equities to record highs in 2023 and 2024.
The GRANOLAS group of stocks are Europe’s equivalent of the Mag 7.
Artificial intelligence is unlikely to steal jobs from human workers, but will alter the labor landscape.
After a bumpy 2023, small-cap U.S. stocks are in a good place.
Artificial intelligence’s capabilities and adoption are on track for a huge impact.
The $2.1 trillion in excess consumer savings is dwindling.
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
Strong back-to-school shopping season bodes well for holiday retail
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
The importance of planning ahead
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
There’s more than one way to forecast a recession. Our investment pros explain the indicators they watch.
Americans returning to pre-pandemic driving habits as gas prices come off the boil.
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