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8 minute read
5 minute read
Fed stays in wait-and-see mode, but makes major changes to its forecast
9 minute read
No, this is not a golf-related typo.
3 minute read
'Uncertainty' dominated the FOMC meeting this week.
Unless you're sure to be right and on time, you need a plan.
Well, then, why are we worried about a recession?
6 minute read
Bessent preaches short-term pain for long-term gains.
4 minute read
Weekly Global Market Snapshot
2 minute read
It's been a momentous time in geopolitics.
Trump's 'unpredictable' approach could work, unless nervous business leaders lay employees off in numbers.
Maybe the Fed’s not done cutting rates this year, after all.
How the emerging trade war might impact the US economy and equities.
1 minute read
Why a short-term economic soft patch should give way to a strong second half for markets.
Market intervention should subside under the new SEC leadership.
No one would eat sausage if they saw how it's made.
Financial markets roiled by developments in D.C.
A near-term slowdown may be emerging, but the longer-term upside is keeping the bears at bay…so far.
7 minute read
A look at the new president's agenda.
DeepSeek drives China technology surge and broader market rally.
On the back of solid holiday retail sales, January's were dismal.
A number of countries are seeing positive ratings trends.
Is this the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?
Lowering the 10-year Treasury yield is more difficult than some think.
The rally broadens.
10 minute read
The opening salvos, at least, were fairly tame.
New year starts with hiring and wage growth.
Were the bond vigilantes behind the recent upheaval in UK government debt?
Staying long-term positive through choppy waters.
For liquidity investors, the Fed decision to pause cuts matters more than Powell and Trump locking horns.
Investors got a "wake-up call" this week.
Revisions are possible due to inventory and trade data.
The Fed kept rates steady, and Chair Powell kept his distance from Trump.
The short term is not the enemy of the long term.
The market cheered strong earnings and a new administration.
The factors that supported MBS last year are still in place.
Preparing for volatility while staying positioned for a positive long-term outcome.
Peak policy uncertainty.
Moderating inflation has restored confidence in the rally.
Stocks playing catch-up with bond market sell-off.
A variable order of events will influence bond markets
The yield curve is back with a vengeance.
Employment strength should keep Fed on the sidelines for some time.
Three things to watch in 2025.
13 minute read
Potential surprises for the market in 2025 seem balanced; staying tilted toward stocks, with cash in reserve for a correction if it comes.
After back-to-back great years, could we expect solid returns in 2025?
A hawkish Powell and DC standoff interrupt animal spirits.
As the Fed slows its pace, shoppers are increasing theirs.
A small number of people could have a large impact on the economy in 2025.
While it cut rates, uncertainty about Trump policies seem to give the Fed pause.
There's some evidence of a tired market as investors anticipate 2025.
The coming year may be more volatile than the one nearly past.
Moving more money out of Europe/Japan to US and emerging markets.
Three things to watch in 2025
Rate cuts and deregulation could help lead the segment higher.
Since the election, consumer and business sentiment has improved.
The US is doing quite well, especially when seen in perspective.
Labor market rebounds from October weather and strikes.
One reason is rate cuts.
Money market assets have reached a new mark.
If your Thanksgiving guests violate the no-politics discussion rule, shut it down with policy.
The themes that matter for the coming year.
Confidence high and stocks higher as election gives way to holidays.
The Aloha Spirit, "the breath of life," may be just what the doctor ordered.
Will weakness in Europe open the gate to a second Draghi moment?
Markets should rise toward 7,500 in 2026 as Trump’s growth agenda plays out and the chess game moves forward.
Will rising post-election confidence boost holiday sales?
A look at the impact Trump's potential policies might have on international markets.
They may be coming, but their supposed benefits are a mirage.
The market may be a little giddy but be careful of snap decisions.
Global Market Snapshot
Resurgent inflation and stronger growth render the Fed’s rate-cutting plans uncertain.
Deciphering the outlook will depend on understanding we are in a chess game.
With an equally divided electorate, what happened?!
Republicans closing in on 'Red Trifecta.'
Powell rebuffed questions about the Fed's future, and his own, but his nebulous comments give the FOMC latitude.
Federated Hermes CIOs react to the U.S. election.
An exhausted electorate wonders what the post-election future holds.
Investors, voters and the Fed will likely look past the October jobs report distorted by hurricanes and strikes.
Labour budget outlined plans to fill fiscal ‘black hole’ and invest for economic recovery.
Noisy data and election uncertainty might slow Fed easing.
A trade war could have unexpected consequences.
Bonds sold off, stocks held on and the election drew one week closer.
Wild swings in election prospects impact financial markets
Monetary and fiscal policy are at the forefront of investors’ minds.
Beijing goes for growth.
All five worries on the wall are fading as year-end approaches.
The implications for foreign policy could be far-reaching
Which depend on revenues, which depend on employed consumers.
Will Fed’s data dependency generate market volatility?
With inflation at a 3-year low, the Bank of England might cut rates further by year-end.
Auto ABS delinquency and charge-off rates are rising, but fundamentals remain strong.
A strong quarter for bonds as a patient, diversified approach is rewarded
The bullish stock market seems to be overlooking deteriorating fundamentals.
Amid many uncertainties and difficulties, this market keeps its chin up.
MDT’s recently created Industry Moat factor helps identify under-appreciated companies. Here’s how it works in practice.
Investors look to third quarter results for guidance.
Frontier countries fuel emerging market debt
Remaining cautiously bullish as market grinds into fourth quarter.
Recent good news augurs well for more of the same.
Robust September jobs report supports view the economy is headed for rotation, not recession.
The case for a strategic long-term allocation remains strong.
The brief dockworkers' strike re-kindled inflation concerns this week.
Homebuilding stocks are rising, and the housing market may be springing back too.
The longshoremen strike could have far-reaching consequences for the economy and markets.
Interest rates have fallen, but in the liquidity space, the sky has not.
With so much to worry about, it's easy to forget how much is going right.
Weakest Back-to-School spending in 15 years.
Does the rally in Chinese equities from its new stimulus program have legs?
China bazooka follows Fed's big cut, fueling the cyclical trade; U.S. elections on deck.
Fed easing means fixed-income investments should benefit from both factors of total return: price and income.
An early, soft-landing Christmas present with a bow on it?
Federal Reserve ‘recalibrates’ monetary policy.
The Fed announced a punchy 50 basis-point rate.
The data did not support the large cut, but the Fed did not want to seem behind the curve.
The Fed’s half-point rate cut shows it still thinks the economy can avoid a recession.
Loneliness is bad, but solitude is amazing!
Equities regained ground this week amid volatile trading and last week's tech-led sell-off.
On the cusp of cutting rates, the only unknowns are the pace and magnitude.
Rate cuts seem imminent. How might investors adapt their portfolios?
‘R’otation continues, even as ‘R’ecession now in play.
Bouts of volatility need a good tonic.
Fed on track to begin cutting rates later this month.
Five things spooking markets this week.
The markets’ first test is Friday’s August jobs report.
The election likely will determine the fate of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act.
Sticking with our broadening-out call as market moves our way.
And it has parallels to the present day.
Presidential elections typically gather steam after Labor Day.
Markets are yet again pricing in too many Fed cuts.
It's not flying like it would in a recession.
For investors looking for a change in direction, China's Third Plenum was underwhelming.
Powell adopts dovish tone in his Jackson Hole keynote
The Fed says the time has come.
Four possible causes of the public's sour mood.
The predictive strength of the curve’s inversion has waned, but not disappeared.
The market has regained its composure - for now.
Will politicians finally address the ballooning U.S. debt and deficit?
Reasons why we think the market will remain volatile and 'The Great Rotation' will continue.
As rate cuts are up for debate, focus on the impact on the short end of the yield curve.
Can electric vehicle sales grow enough to meet the government’s target?
And then what?
According to the major rating agencies, the high-yield market has migrated higher in quality in recent years.
Holding to overweights in value and small cap stocks; too early to add back to growth.
The sell-off was sparked by the latest U.S. jobs data, but other things were in the mix.
At historic discounts to large company stocks, small is beautiful unless ... the "R" word.
Weak jobs report should prompt Fed to cut rates in September.
Mid-cap companies can combine the beneficial features of both large and small companies.
The FOMC is back to considering both the labor market and inflation equally as it weighs cuts.
Investors are shifting away from mega-cap tech. Will the small-cap rally last?
Holding to rotation call as thesis playing out.
And if so, into early-cycle small caps or late-cycle defensive dividend payers?
Combination could chill the Fed longer than the consensus believes.
I'm waiting up here in the cart.
Strong dollar entices Americans across the pond, boosting economies.
Investors are pricing in a Donald Trump victory.
Markets are already pricing in potential November scenarios.
Compare Biden and Trump in terms of policies and the potential investment implications.
The U.S. economy is slowing and inflation declining, but when will the Fed cut rates?
Investors in ‘wait and see’ mode following shocking French election result.
Higher pricing reflects supply and demand in a changing world.
Selectively taking profits in stocks but maintaining positive stance.
In fixed income, there’s quite a difference between current yield and yield-to-maturity.
Were you able to keep the fireworks strictly to the sky?
Headline payroll strength hides weaker details.
The UK Labour Party’s landslide victory election result was largely priced in.
Both Biden and Trump failed to address the Treasury’s debt at the debate.
The market is standing tall at the end of Q2, but it's hard not to have a few worries.
A gathering of professionals acknowledged five decades of money funds and sifted through issues in their future.
The presidential debate may be the only one in the election cycle.
Fears grow that Brazil will fail to eliminate its deficit.
IG-rated banks are well-positioned to handle the increase in office vacancies.
We bulls expect the rally to finally broaden … but not just yet.
The market for GLP-1 drugs is vast because it's not just weight they alleviate.
After years of negative sentiment, the outlook for Chinese equities finally appears to be improving.
Our optimistic market outlook has been right, but our 'broadening out' thesis has yet to work.
Filling up at the pump matters to voters.
Despite dovish inflation data, Fed issues hawkish dots.
Can you guess the common threads in each of these four recent news categories?
The small-cap opportunity investors have been waiting for may be at hand.
The Fed penciled in a cut this year even as it forecast higher inflation.
Without a majority, Prime Minister Modi must assemble a coalition.
Nonfarm payroll strength belies weakness in other areas.
The impact of office CRE woes on most cities is mitigated by their diversification of revenue.
We expect a strong summer note season in the municipal markets ahead of the election.
It’s all about the data.
With the Fed on hold and tax collection over, assets resume flowing into liquidity products.
Fed likely to take the summer off.
If so, which decade are we reliving?
If so, it could lead to policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed.
EU elections could result in its first center-right coalition.
The economy is sending confusing messages, but the market keeps lurching ahead due to FOMO.
Baby bust fuels need for immigration and Social Security reform.
Two women are dueling to be the next president of Mexico, but the front-runner represents status quo.
Staying overweight stocks and small caps, even as election looms.
Next year looks far away from here.
Stocks soar as CPI eases despite declining retail sales and confidence.
Encouraging inflation data put rate cuts in key global economies back on the table.
The U.S. Treasury’s plan to buy back some of its securities should have many benefits.
Sticky inflation might slow the Fed, but not the timeliness of extending duration.
It depends on whom you ask.
Other inflation metrics remain sticky and persistent.
This month's election in the Rainbow Nation likely will be the most contested of its democratic era.
If so, they—and investors—stand to benefit.
The Fed may be dovish just by not being hawkish.
Does today’s soft jobs report successfully change the Fed's narrative?
The Fed's game plan hasn't changed, but defeating inflation will take longer than it expected.
Cooling GDP and accelerating inflation problematic for the Fed.
Inflation, politics and the market's dyspepsia have investors on edge.
What does age have to do with stock performance?
Dividend-oriented stock investing is poised for a resurgence.
With yields rising and P/Es contracting, we need good first-quarter earnings.
Geopolitics, seasonality, interest rates and stubborn inflation have all come calling.
Historically, the last leg toward a given inflation target has often been the most difficult.
Re-accelerating inflation and strong labor market delay Fed cuts.
I know you're waiting for that correction.
Clear electoral mandate in the world's largest democracy could attract investment and bolster growth.
Much stronger-than-expected jobs report keeps Fed rate cuts on hold.
A healthy labor market coupled with productivity growth could be just the thing.
The Fed is not feeling pressure to cut rates.
With solid growth, sticky inflation and surging stocks, the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates.
The market's having a party, but inflation's a guest that just won't leave.
Holding to overweight stocks call despite consensus moving our way as "Goldilocks Plus" drives market higher
The GRANOLAS group of stocks are Europe’s equivalent of the Mag 7.
After a bumpy 2023, small-cap U.S. stocks are in a good place.
Three things to watch in 2024.
A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
The new regulations for money funds don't change their value proposition.
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
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