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3 minute read
3 minute watch
Municipal bonds are priced with tax protection in mind.
2 minute watch
Investors may balance the dramatic outperformance of a select few stocks with a diversified portfolio.
7 minute read
I'm waiting up here in the cart.
2 minute read
Strong dollar entices Americans across the pond, boosting economies.
Investors are pricing in a Donald Trump victory.
1 minute watch
The Fed is historically reticent to change policy before an election.
4 minute read
Markets are already pricing in potential November scenarios.
Rates won’t be higher forever.
9 minute read
Compare Biden and Trump in terms of policies and the potential investment implications.
6 minute read
The U.S. economy is slowing and inflation declining, but when will the Fed cut rates?
Investors in ‘wait and see’ mode following shocking French election result.
Higher pricing reflects supply and demand in a changing world.
Spectators are back in Paris for the 2024 games.
In fixed income, there’s quite a difference between current yield and yield-to-maturity.
Were you able to keep the fireworks strictly to the sky?
8 minute read
Headline payroll strength hides weaker details.
The UK Labour Party’s landslide victory election result was largely priced in.
It could be years before the Fed reaches its 2% target.
Both Biden and Trump failed to address the Treasury’s debt at the debate.
The market is standing tall at the end of Q2, but it's hard not to have a few worries.
A gathering of professionals acknowledged five decades of money funds and sifted through issues in their future.
5 minute read
The presidential debate may be the only one in the election cycle.
Fears grow that Brazil will fail to eliminate its deficit.
IG-rated banks are well-positioned to handle the increase in office vacancies.
We bulls expect the rally to finally broaden … but not just yet.
The market for GLP-1 drugs is vast because it's not just weight they alleviate.
After years of negative sentiment, the outlook for Chinese equities finally appears to be improving.
Our optimistic market outlook has been right, but our 'broadening out' thesis has yet to work.
Filling up at the pump matters to voters.
Despite dovish inflation data, Fed issues hawkish dots.
Can you guess the common threads in each of these four recent news categories?
The small-cap opportunity investors have been waiting for may be at hand.
The Fed penciled in a cut this year even as it forecast higher inflation.
1 minute read
Without a majority, Prime Minister Modi must assemble a coalition.
Nonfarm payroll strength belies weakness in other areas.
The impact of office CRE woes on most cities is mitigated by their diversification of revenue.
We expect a strong summer note season in the municipal markets ahead of the election.
It’s all about the data.
With the Fed on hold and tax collection over, assets resume flowing into liquidity products.
Fed likely to take the summer off.
If so, which decade are we reliving?
If so, it could lead to policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed.
EU elections could result in its first center-right coalition.
The economy is sending confusing messages, but the market keeps lurching ahead due to FOMO.
Baby bust fuels need for immigration and Social Security reform.
Global Market Snapshot
Two women are dueling to be the next president of Mexico, but the front-runner represents status quo.
Staying overweight stocks and small caps, even as election looms.
Next year looks far away from here.
Stocks soar as CPI eases despite declining retail sales and confidence.
Encouraging inflation data put rate cuts in key global economies back on the table.
The U.S. Treasury’s plan to buy back some of its securities should have many benefits.
Sticky inflation might slow the Fed, but not the timeliness of extending duration.
It depends on whom you ask.
Other inflation metrics remain sticky and persistent.
This month's election in the Rainbow Nation likely will be the most contested of its democratic era.
If so, they—and investors—stand to benefit.
The Fed may be dovish just by not being hawkish.
Does today’s soft jobs report successfully change the Fed's narrative?
Global tourism plays a vital role in regional economies.
The Fed's game plan hasn't changed, but defeating inflation will take longer than it expected.
Cooling GDP and accelerating inflation problematic for the Fed.
Inflation, politics and the market's dyspepsia have investors on edge.
What does age have to do with stock performance?
Dividend-oriented stock investing is poised for a resurgence.
With yields rising and P/Es contracting, we need good first-quarter earnings.
Geopolitics, seasonality, interest rates and stubborn inflation have all come calling.
General Electric's split sheds light on the potential for value creation.
Historically, the last leg toward a given inflation target has often been the most difficult.
Re-accelerating inflation and strong labor market delay Fed cuts.
I know you're waiting for that correction.
Clear electoral mandate in the world's largest democracy could attract investment and bolster growth.
Much stronger-than-expected jobs report keeps Fed rate cuts on hold.
A healthy labor market coupled with productivity growth could be just the thing.
The Fed is not feeling pressure to cut rates.
With solid growth, sticky inflation and surging stocks, the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates.
The market's having a party, but inflation's a guest that just won't leave.
Holding to overweight stocks call despite consensus moving our way as "Goldilocks Plus" drives market higher
The central bank hasn't cut and yet the market cheers.
Is the equity market rally inconsistent with Fed policy?
The global middle class has an increasing influence on markets.
The Fed's dot plot held the intrigue at the FOMC meeting.
Investors should think constructively about the “Maturity Wall.”
Signs of resurgent inflation may be gradually countered by a change in the labor market.
China must address its faltering economy with much more fiscal stimulus.
Biden left more questions than answers about his economic policies in his SOTU address.
Can an effervescent market lead to durable gains?
Strong headline gains but weak data underneath.
The group pushed U.S. equities to record highs in 2023 and 2024.
The Fed is in no rush to cut rates.
The expectation of rate cuts makes corporate bonds an attractive opportunity.
The GRANOLAS group of stocks are Europe’s equivalent of the Mag 7.
Magnificent Seven continue to outperform.
2024 could be a great year if we navigate it right.
The end of rolling recessions bodes well for risk assets.
Strong reports have swayed expectations for rate cuts rather than the Fed's constant blaring.
The Fed will look closely at inflation numbers before making any cuts.
What's even better than a Goldilocks market?
Artificial intelligence is unlikely to steal jobs from human workers, but will alter the labor landscape.
Strong wage growth keeps Fed cuts off the bases.
Income and duration lead total return potential.
Remaining “Long and Strong” as earnings season and economic data vindicates optimists.
Inflation data reminded us this week that we're not out of the woods yet.
Dismal retail sales in January cap a weak holiday spending season.
Will China replicate the success of Japanese and Korean automakers?
Signs are pointing to the IPO market continuing to normalize in 2024.
Less fixated on the Fed, the market now focuses on the economy's resilience.
Stocks strong start portends a volatile but positive year.
New investment-grade corporate bond issuance is pouring into the market.
In an economy like this, the Fed is in no hurry
Strong headline gains but a mixed picture beneath the surface.
The Fed removed its tightening bias, opening the door to rate cuts.
After a bumpy 2023, small-cap U.S. stocks are in a good place.
Should keep the Fed on the sidelines in March.
The market continues to move higher, but more breadth would be welcome.
Secular bull market reconfirmed; long-term prospects rising.
27 minute listen
2024 outlook: Part 2.
35 minute listen
2024 outlook: Part 1.
Widening spreads could provide a step back into high yield.
There's plenty of data to cause concern but, for now, even more to prompt a smile.
60 minute watch
The presidential election, geopolitical risks and Fed moves are things to watch in 2024.
Labor market and consumer spending firm, while inflation rises.
What we got right…and wrong…in a volatile year.
A weaker economy and earnings may impact the high-yield market.
Investors and markets differ in their expectations for rate cuts.
Sticky inflation remains a concern, but maybe the path forward is muddling through.
Zero for two out of the gate.
The high-yield market saw a strong 2023.
Three things to watch in 2024.
Artificial intelligence’s capabilities and adoption are on track for a huge impact.
Strong job gains and rising wages keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
The consumer and corporate profits will decide whether the January effect has weight or not.
The Santa Claus Rally advanced most of our 2024 market call into 2023, but there’s plenty of room left for stock pickers as the market rally broadens.
Despite the UAW strike, auto ABS remain strong.
Consumer spending may be value based in 2024.
Experiences are trumping big-ticket items this holiday season.
Inflation grinds lower, the Fed throws in the towel and holiday spending slows.
The Fed now projects rate cuts in 2024, just not as many as the markets have.
European equities are priced for pessimism; U.S. equities are not.
Fed rate cuts not coming anytime soon.
A decline in rates could boost the short end of the yield curve.
But investors aren't going to let you spoil this rally. Next year? We'll see.
Investors must consider timing when evaluating opportunities abroad.
The Fed is seeing the results it hoped for.
As the economy slows across the board, the Fed is done hiking rates.
Opportunities remain to invest in credit card ABS.
Market momentum & fundamentals are keeping the rally going.
The markets have swung too far by forecasting multiple Fed rate cuts in 2024.
12 minute read
Expecting market to broaden out as we advance to 5,000 on the S&P.
The 2024 presidential election could trigger an end-of-year rally.
We believe next year could present compelling opportunities within high yield.
Thanksgiving brings increased travel, falling prices and rallying financial markets.
The economy and markets can't take on much more debt without getting sick.
Despite Biden’s terrible polling, Democrats performed well in off-year elections, which should worry the GOP.
Markets are serving up rallies for the holidays.
These stocks are well positioned to thrive in a higher-for-longer environment.
Despite high rates, the large amount of maturing debt in the coming years is not a crisis.
Reasons to believe the equity rally has legs.
The $2.1 trillion in excess consumer savings is dwindling.
Financial markets rally on perceived Fed pause.
With earnings and economic news not as bad as feared, markets can grind higher into year-end.
Weak jobs report pushes Fed to sidelines.
Will the stock and bond rallies have staying power?
The Fed didn't hike. That doesn't mean it's done.
The Fed wants more time and data as it looks to December's meeting.
Will it keep the Fed in play?
Geopolitics are trumping the economy and earnings among investor worries.
Though it is also very dark in the middle of the night.
Dividends are working, even when out of favor.
Back-to-School sales were soft, but consumers are spending elsewhere.
A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer
After weathering the storm, the housing market is poised to boost growth despite Fed headwinds.
4 minute watch
Dividend performance follows a natural rotation.
Employment, inflation and bonds combine for twists and turns for the journey of Fed policy.
It's not just the pilot who is confused as markets wrestle with yields.
As markets stumble forward into earnings, winners and losers likely to emerge.
Disruptions minor so far amid a global outlook that's a bit meh.
Being defensive in credit may mean a little pain for a bigger potential gain.
But overall labor-market picture is mixed.
International dividend payers have come through a lost decade.
The bond market used to be dull...
More housing should increase affordability.
Equity markets have popped this year—but not for everyone.
Yet another shift in the Fed's SEP has the markets again playing defense.
Rates may be resetting higher but that doesn't mean stocks must suffer.
Wage inflation could keep the Fed engaged.
Evidence suggests the move up in longer yields is nearing an end.
Investors may want to take a fresh look at the dividend investing space.
Mortgage-backed securities may become more attractive relative to credit.
When global investors think Asia, they're increasingly thinking India.
Fed plans to keep interest rates higher for longer.
As the Fed continues quantitative tightening, spreads widen.
The Fed opts against raising rates, but doesn't rule out another hike this year.
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
With Growth a crowded and expensive trade, might Value offer better value?
School spending slows while inflation rises.
China's vehicle manufacturers soon might take the global pole position.
Moderating core inflation doesn't ease consumer concerns about everyday prices.
Maintaining cautiously optimistic stance as macro concerns fade.
Data point in different directions.
Lots of reasons to expect all-important spending to hold up.
Strong back-to-school shopping season bodes well for holiday retail
But can the rise in workers' negotiating power since Covid 19 continue?
Unloved sectors may be setting up nicely.
Softer job growth could prevent the Fed from hiking again.
Fed Chair Powell addressed inflation targets and market expectations in Jackson Hole.
Contrarian approaches may offer a missing piece to investor portfolios.
Let's hope so because massive and growing deficits are spooking markets.
Powell uses Jackson Hole keynote to reiterate Fed’s vigilance to lower inflation.
They've stabilized somewhat but still face pressures.
Spoiler: People remain paramount.
The rapidly developing peninsular country has 3 factors going for it.
And has a lot of firepower left.
Buyable entry point emerging for stocks.
The conditions suppressing the IPO market since 2021 appear to be subsiding.
The evidence so far suggests not a lot.
40 minute listen
The past, present and future of dividend investing.
The marriage of AI and quantum computers could take things to unimaginable levels.
Electric vehicles face bumps in the road to reach their lofty goals.
Rhetorically speaking, China may have long Covid.
For equity investors, peak pessimism presents potential opportunities.
Payroll growth slows, but wages stay hot.
Senior Portfolio Manager R.J. Gallo can think of seven reasons.
Its potential, for good and for bad, is just starting to be appreciated.
The new regulations for money funds don't change their value proposition.
Fed may remain vigilant.
Might this rally be due for some consolidation?
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
The positives and negatives of the new SEC money market amendments.
The importance of planning ahead
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
There’s more than one way to forecast a recession. Our investment pros explain the indicators they watch.
Americans returning to pre-pandemic driving habits as gas prices come off the boil.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
Comparing the cost of becoming an adult across decades.
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