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6 minute read
Fed plans to keep interest rates higher for longer.
2 minute read
The Fed opts against raising rates, but doesn't rule out another hike this year.
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
4 minute read
With Growth a crowded and expensive trade, might Value offer better value?
School spending slows while inflation rises.
8 minute read
Moderating core inflation doesn't ease consumer concerns about everyday prices.
Data point in different directions.
7 minute read
Lots of reasons to expect all-important spending to hold up.
Unloved sectors may be setting up nicely.
Softer job growth could prevent the Fed from hiking again.
Contrarian approaches may offer a missing piece to investor portfolios.
Let's hope so because massive and growing deficits are spooking markets.
5 minute read
Powell uses Jackson Hole keynote to reiterate Fed’s vigilance to lower inflation.
The rapidly developing peninsular country has 3 factors going for it.
And has a lot of firepower left.
9 minute read
Buyable entry point emerging for stocks.
The conditions suppressing the IPO market since 2021 appear to be subsiding.
The evidence so far suggests not a lot.
40 minute listen
The past, present and future of dividend investing.
Electric vehicles face bumps in the road to reach their lofty goals.
For equity investors, peak pessimism presents potential opportunities.
Payroll growth slows, but wages stay hot.
Its potential, for good and for bad, is just starting to be appreciated.
Fed may remain vigilant.
Might this rally be due for some consolidation?
With the impact of its tightening still not apparent, the Fed opted for another modest rate hike.
Upgrading year-end S&P target to 5,000 as rocky landing scenario nears end.
2 minute watch
The U.S. is likely already feeling the predicted “rocky landing.”
Recession odds have fallen.
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
Waiting for the program to go bust isn’t an option.
It’s Christmas in July for equities. Will the Fed be a Scrooge?
Investors should watch corporate earnings.
Why we think Japan could finally outperform after three lost decades.
But strong enough for the Fed to hike yet again.
The consumer is between tough headwinds and promising tailwinds.
The first half was a consensus killer; will the second half be one too?
Higher-for-longer rates can be beneficial for dividend strategies.
Will tech stocks cool after torrid first-half surge?
As ‘Rocky Landing’ enters final phases, equity market remains upwardly biased.
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
The consumer has a lot more firepower than many appreciate.
Dichotomy between nominal and core inflation declines keeps Fed engaged.
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
The Fed skipped a rate hike but suggested more could come.
The current U.S. immigration system is an inadequate solution to population decline.
The pain trade is up. The late '90s' parallels are eerie.
A hot headline increase of 339,000 jobs in May but colder details put Fed in wait-and-see mode.
A very narrow market trading at extremes makes for discomfort.
The office credit market is in trouble, but the broad CRE sector appears healthy.
1 minute watch
Emerging markets may show long-term opportunity for investors.
A strong consumer and robust labor market aren't so fun for the Fed.
Europe may have the momentum, valuation and growth to continue to outperform.
Inconsistent economic reports cloud the path of U.S. growth.
The bump in April retail sales belies a deceleration of consumer spending.
Might stocks offering 'growth at reasonable prices' provide refuge?
Is the dollar's reserve currency status in danger?
Investors grow impatient waiting for the big downturn that may never fully come.
The Fed may be done hiking, but its subsequent pause could last awhile.
That could determine if above- or below-average historical returns are likely.
Barring the emergence of more bullish data, we expect the Fed to pause rate hikes this year.
Looming risks make it hard to assess where markets go next.
GDP growth slows, but inflation remains elevated
With volatile markets ahead, stocks enter a period of limbo.
With so many mixed messages, no wonder investors are confused.
43 minute listen
Stubborn inflation, strong consumption data and a robust labor market are clouding the economy’s path.
Is the debate much ado about nothing or a slow-moving train wreck?
Slower growth and stubborn inflation argue for patience and selectivity.
We see GDP growth slowing over the balance of 2023.
Perils lurk but so does the potential for upside surprises.
Fed rate hikes finally may be starting to bite.
Mounting clues that the economy has reached a turning point.
Maintaining cautiously constructive stance amid confusing outlook.
Should investors buy the dips or sell the rips as we approach earnings season?
For as long as the economy is stronger for longer.
Will the Federal Reserve pivot from its fight against inflation?
Not all regional banks are caught up in the turmoil.
3 minute read
Fed Chair Powell made the case for another quarter-point hike amid the banking turmoil.
Growth stocks typically do well in low-rate, low-growth environments.
Rapid rate increases exposing issues that were hidden when rates were low.
Silicon Valley Bank's 'Perfect Storm' unlikely to deter Fed.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
The beats (hawkish Fed, strong jobs, surprise bank failure) keep coming.
In the IPO market, only the best business models survive.
The still hot labor market all but ensures the Federal Reserve stays aggressive.
12 minute read
Standard models and frameworks are less useful in rocky landings.
The recent pullback after a strong start to ’23 may be just a breather.
The words of the day are “caution” and “patience.”
As Linda discusses inflationary '70s, a guest wonders if the Mister is with her.
U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are pointing in different directions.
The tragic Russia/Ukraine war could keep energy prices and inflation elevated.
As long as Americans keep spending, higher for longer may rule the day.
A varied macro-economic environment calls for a defensive strategy.
The only good news is both seem much closer to a better future.
It starts with China. Other forces also are at work.
Combined with persistent inflation, Fed likely to remain vigilant.
Inflation, consumer strength move bonds closer to the Fed. Stocks still keeping some distance.
The Fed may pause this year, but a pivot is unlikely.
Audiences pondered this market, and Linda's chauffeur, in her travels this week.
Signs suggest Europe’s economy might avoid a serious downturn.
Fundamentals suggest stocks could correct in the coming months before rallying into year-end.
We're probably not yet at a "just right" stage for stocks, especially of the growth variety.
The surge of hires in January likely keeps the Fed in hawk mode.
Bulls looking past the crosscurrents … for now.
Decent headline gross domestic product growth belies weakness in several core components.
Can the equity rally survive deteriorating fundamentals, a tight-as-a-drum job market and inverted yield curve?
Persistent inflation and the Fed’s efforts to fight it will lead to a mild recession, but investors can find opportunities across equity, fixed income and cash.
In volatile markets, stock picking and picking your spots may offer investors the best options for returns.
Inflation cooling but labor market remains healthy.
2022 was tough. 2023 will have its challenges but be perched for opportunities.
Two market indicators suggest equities could enjoy a better year.
Modestly more constructive on stocks as rocky landing approaches final phase.
Three things to watch in 2023.
A flush consumer could make for a slow-cession instead of a recession.
Opportunities can be found in small-cap markets.
But the ISM services decline was a bigger story.
Looks like 3 decades of disinflation are coming to an end.
An earnings and Fed Catch-22 could keep S&P range-bound for coming months.
Consumers are showing restraint amid still-high inflation.
The Fed pushes back against market expectations.
A quick visit lifted spirits. Will Santa do the same for the markets?
45 minute listen
Silvia Dall’Angelo, Donald Ellenberger and Steve Chiavarone discuss global inflation and whether the markets have already priced in a recession.
The U.S. economy is slowing across the board.
The Fed can't like the strong job growth and surge in wages in November.
You have to ask: is he here to hurt or help?
10 minute read
2023 outlook to us looks like more of the same as "rocky landing" proceeds.
But it's a lot more expensive this year.
Not until the stimulus stockpile is gone. But what then?
Perhaps. But the focus should be on quality.
Mix shift in retail spending points to slower economic growth.
Many reasons for a rally but don't expect it to last.
Republicans fail to achieve expected midterm election gains.
Play it safe with cash until further clarity.
Maybe everyone, including markets, could use a little boring.
Energy sector stays hot.
Yes, but recent actions have raised the risk.
Solid week of employment data keeps Fed aggressive.
And it doesn't look like the Fed is planning one anytime soon.
Allow time before setting sail with international opportunities.
Remaining defensive as 2023 consensus on earnings and Fed remains too optimistic.
Positive Q3 GDP growth provides a respite.
Investors may seek cover in value stocks.
Consider the big picture when assessing markets ... and life.
Hawkish Fed prompts us to lower our GDP growth estimates.
Consumer staples come out on top.
And they may get it as midterms seem to be trending the GOP's way.
Monetary policy may impact midterm rally.
Investors bracing for a challenging third-quarter earnings season.
Dividends hold up against volatility.
This market has been in a bad place for some time.
Everything we thought might go wrong at start of the year, has.
Whether or not this bear market survives October, investors will face an unnerving environment.
The sun's not the only thing that's hot in Hawaii these days.
Numerous factors affect our outlook.
Or will social policy issues keep it close?
More warnings appear.
Disasters all over have markets on edge.
Investors may feel winter chill in Europe.
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