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7 minute read
Stocks are on a tear, but investors may consolidate gains.
5 minute read
A trip to Egypt illustrates the value of influence.
8 minute read
The strong labor report for June likely keeps the Fed on pause in July.
3 minute watch
A brief history of quantitative investing.
6 minute read
Stocks mount powerful rebound despite policy concerns.
4 minute read
Outside of tech, public capital markets remain robust.
Thanks to advances in computing power, today's quant is not the quant of old.
Sticking with our long-term bullish call on stocks.
AI: It's here. It's everywhere. What's next?
Central bank waiting for fiscal and geopolitical policy developments to unfold before cutting rates.
2 minute read
Is this the beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?
Storm clouds on the horizon, but confidence is rebounding.
1 minute read
With inflation under control, the Fed should cut rates twice later this year.
2 minute watch
With peak tariff uncertainty behind us, we think stocks should grind higher.
Sticking with our 6,500 year-end S&P 500 forecast.
Just when it seemed certain that retail sales will plummet from strong March/April levels, consumer sentiment has surged.
Equity and fixed-income investors are responding differently to tariff and fiscal policy uncertainty.
10 minute read
Stock market returning to normal sailing conditions as we emerge from the Straits.
Solid US economic data also helps as equities reverse their April freefall.
3 minute read
For now, Trump is 'just' insulting Fed Chair Powell, as the Treasury market has pushed back.
Long a laggard, the sector has catalysts for outperformance.
Import surge pushes first-quarter GDP into the red.
Labor market remains solid, despite tariff uncertainty.
Trump's policy reversals buoy markets.
Equity market neutral strategies offer potential for shelter amid volatility.
Should investors focus on solid hard data or weak soft data?
Maintaining our moderate equity overweight as we slip past the reefs.
Calculated well before the tariff announcement, the US added a robust 228,000 jobs in March.
Adding to stocks, trusting the sailors.
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are more aggressive than the markets were expecting.
Economic growth is now central to China's agenda.
Concern about Trump’s tariffs and sticky inflation seem to be deflating consumer confidence.
Fed stays in wait-and-see mode, but makes major changes to its forecast
Unless you're sure to be right and on time, you need a plan.
Bessent preaches short-term pain for long-term gains.
As a soft patch emerges, opportunity to add to stocks is getting closer.
It's been a momentous time in geopolitics.
Maybe the Fed’s not done cutting rates this year, after all.
How the emerging trade war might impact the US economy and equities.
Why a short-term economic soft patch should give way to a strong second half for markets.
Financial markets roiled by developments in D.C.
A near-term slowdown may be emerging, but the longer-term upside is keeping the bears at bay…so far.
DeepSeek drives China technology surge and broader market rally.
On the back of solid holiday retail sales, January's were dismal.
The rally broadens.
New year starts with hiring and wage growth.
Staying long-term positive through choppy waters.
Revisions are possible due to inventory and trade data.
The Fed kept rates steady, and Chair Powell kept his distance from Trump.
The short term is not the enemy of the long term.
Preparing for volatility while staying positioned for a positive long-term outcome.
Peak policy uncertainty.
The effect on international equities might depend on some Trump policies.
Stocks playing catch-up with bond market sell-off.
Employment strength should keep Fed on the sidelines for some time.
Three things to watch in 2025.
13 minute read
Potential surprises for the market in 2025 seem balanced; staying tilted toward stocks, with cash in reserve for a correction if it comes.
As the Fed slows its pace, shoppers are increasing theirs.
The coming year may be more volatile than the one nearly past.
Moving more money out of Europe/Japan to US and emerging markets.
Rate cuts and deregulation could help lead the segment higher.
Since the election, consumer and business sentiment has improved.
Labor market rebounds from October weather and strikes.
One reason is rate cuts.
The themes that matter for the coming year.
Confidence high and stocks higher as election gives way to holidays.
Markets should rise toward 7,500 in 2026 as Trump’s growth agenda plays out and the chess game moves forward.
Will rising post-election confidence boost holiday sales?
A look at the impact Trump's potential policies might have on international markets.
Resurgent inflation and stronger growth render the Fed’s rate-cutting plans uncertain.
The math of dividend investing is one that works out over years.
Deciphering the outlook will depend on understanding we are in a chess game.
Republicans closing in on 'Red Trifecta.'
Federated Hermes CIOs react to the U.S. election.
Investors, voters and the Fed will likely look past the October jobs report distorted by hurricanes and strikes.
Beijing goes for growth.
9 minute read
All five worries on the wall are fading as year-end approaches.
2025 will come with clarity on interest rates and politics.
Will Fed’s data dependency generate market volatility?
Prepare for volatility leading up to the election before a year-end rally.
The bullish stock market seems to be overlooking deteriorating fundamentals.
MDT’s recently created Industry Moat factor helps identify under-appreciated companies. Here’s how it works in practice.
Remaining cautiously bullish as market grinds into fourth quarter.
Robust September jobs report supports view the economy is headed for rotation, not recession.
The case for a strategic long-term allocation remains strong.
Weakest Back-to-School spending in 15 years.
China bazooka follows Fed's big cut, fueling the cyclical trade; U.S. elections on deck.
Federal Reserve ‘recalibrates’ monetary policy.
On the cusp of cutting rates, the only unknowns are the pace and magnitude.
Rate cuts seem imminent. How might investors adapt their portfolios?
‘R’otation continues, even as ‘R’ecession now in play.
Fed on track to begin cutting rates later this month.
Sticking with our broadening-out call as market moves our way.
Presidential elections typically gather steam after Labor Day.
For investors looking for a change in direction, China's Third Plenum was underwhelming.
Powell adopts dovish tone in his Jackson Hole keynote
Will politicians finally address the ballooning U.S. debt and deficit?
Reasons why we think the market will remain volatile and 'The Great Rotation' will continue.
Can electric vehicle sales grow enough to meet the government’s target?
Holding to overweights in value and small cap stocks; too early to add back to growth.
The sell-off was sparked by the latest U.S. jobs data, but other things were in the mix.
Weak jobs report should prompt Fed to cut rates in September.
Mid-cap companies can combine the beneficial features of both large and small companies.
Holding to rotation call as thesis playing out.
Combination could chill the Fed longer than the consensus believes.
Investors may balance the dramatic outperformance of a select few stocks with a diversified portfolio.
Strong dollar entices Americans across the pond, boosting economies.
1 minute watch
The Fed is historically reticent to change policy before an election.
The GRANOLAS group of stocks are Europe’s equivalent of the Mag 7.
After a bumpy 2023, small-cap U.S. stocks are in a good place.
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
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