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9 minute read
3 minute read
A confluence of favorable factors might boost smaller companies' returns.
Political pressures persist and markets assume the resumption of rate cuts
6 minute read
Not all points of the yield curve respond equally to Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Tariffs are taking some, but not all, of the pep from the economy's step.
4 minute read
The tariffs are unlikely to lead to persistent inflation.
Continued tight yield spreads are challenging high-yield investors.
8 minute read
Weak July jobs report increases odds of a Fed rate cut.
The Fed’s inflation concerns still outweigh indications of softening growth
With noise levels still high, certainty on policy remains elusive.
Short-term risk-on distractions should give way to long-term economic reality.
The Fed shouldn't want a softening housing market.
US hard data will likely weaken in coming months prompting a resumption of Fed easing.
5 minute read
Bond investors had plenty to consider during May as momentum shifted
Treasury yields have cheapened amid the tumult, creating a tactical opportunity.
Many crosscurrents are affecting US rates
A number of factors are likely prompting the move
Bonds display quiet strength as markets back away from risk.
Lowering the 10-year Treasury yield is more difficult than some think.
2 minute read
The Fed kept rates steady, and Chair Powell kept his distance from Trump.
The factors that supported MBS last year are still in place.
A variable order of events will influence bond markets
Rate cuts and deregulation could help lead the segment higher.
One reason is rate cuts.
Homebuilding stocks are rising, and the housing market may be springing back too.
Fed easing means fixed-income investments should benefit from both factors of total return: price and income.
2 minute watch
The outlook for money market funds remains buoyant.
The data did not support the large cut, but the Fed did not want to seem behind the curve.
The Fed’s half-point rate cut shows it still thinks the economy can avoid a recession.
Three things to watch in 2024.
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
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