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6 minute read
With noise levels still high, certainty on policy remains elusive.
Short-term risk-on distractions should give way to long-term economic reality.
4 minute read
The Fed shouldn't want a softening housing market.
3 minute read
US hard data will likely weaken in coming months prompting a resumption of Fed easing.
5 minute read
Bond investors had plenty to consider during May as momentum shifted
Treasury yields have cheapened amid the tumult, creating a tactical opportunity.
Many crosscurrents are affecting US rates
A number of factors are likely prompting the move
Bonds display quiet strength as markets back away from risk.
Lowering the 10-year Treasury yield is more difficult than some think.
2 minute read
The Fed kept rates steady, and Chair Powell kept his distance from Trump.
The factors that supported MBS last year are still in place.
A variable order of events will influence bond markets
Rate cuts and deregulation could help lead the segment higher.
One reason is rate cuts.
Homebuilding stocks are rising, and the housing market may be springing back too.
Fed easing means fixed-income investments should benefit from both factors of total return: price and income.
2 minute watch
The outlook for money market funds remains buoyant.
The data did not support the large cut, but the Fed did not want to seem behind the curve.
The Fed’s half-point rate cut shows it still thinks the economy can avoid a recession.
The markets’ first test is Friday’s August jobs report.
It's not flying like it would in a recession.
The predictive strength of the curve’s inversion has waned, but not disappeared.
1 minute watch
The Fed is historically reticent to change policy before an election.
Three things to watch in 2024.
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
Comparing the cost of becoming an adult across decades.
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