The flight from the dollar The flight from the dollar http://www.federatedhermes.com/us/static/images/fhi/fed-hermes-logo-amp.png http://www.federatedhermes.com/us/daf\images\insights\article\hanglider-grass-peak-small.jpg June 18 2025 June 18 2025

The flight from the dollar

Is this the beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?

Published June 18 2025
My Content

A “perfect storm” of sorts is occurring in global financial markets this year: the dollar is weakening, Treasury yields are elevated and US equities are hovering near all-time highs.

With this in mind, investors might ask themselves: will global asset managers continue to rebalance their portfolios and diminish their strong US tiltsand will capital continue its slow yet steady flight from America?

Here, the recent renewal of hostilities in the Middle East tells its own story: in contrast to previous crises in the region, neither Treasurys nor the US dollar have strengthened. It’s also unusual to see the dollar (DXY) and US equities (S&P 500) both falling at the same time, as they have done this year.  

We could make the argument that, after pouring trillions of dollars into US assets over the last five years, international investors are now starting to rebalance their portfolios. US equities have been volatile and demand for Treasurys has been weak, with at least some of those flows going into gold, which has continued to strengthen.

For many investors, this latest dynamic will come as a surprise. The US equity market has enjoyed sustained growth for many years. (Yes, there were the 2000 and 2008 bear marketsand the brief Covid dipbut those have long since been left behind.)

Here the contrast is with other equity markets where the story of US exceptionalism over the past two-plus decades has been writ large. It took until 2024, for instance, for Japan’s Nikkei index to finally surpass its 1989 high. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 only reclaimed its Dot Com-era prior peak from spring 2000 this past winter. The MSCI All Country World Index ex-US recently broke out of a trading range that had held since 2007.

No surprise, then, that the US made up nearly two-thirds (65.3%) of the MSCI ACWI on December 31, 2024 (even as the country accounted for just 28.6% of global nominal GDP). All of which is to say that if investors are rebalancing out of the US, there may still be some way to go. To our mind, the US dollar will likely need to come down further even if the US stock market does not.

Against this backdrop, our view is investors could do well to continue to consider opportunities ex-US. Europe, for example, has more monetary and fiscal stimulus levers to pull to generate economic growth. This, coupled with more attractive valuations, improving earnings expectations and a weaker dollar, makes for a possibleand possibly seismicbreak from the past. In our view, international equities look more attractive now than at any point over the last 10 years.

Tags International/Global . Equity .
DISCLOSURES

Views are as of the date above and are subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. These views should not be construed as a recommendation for any specific security or sector.

Stocks are subject to risks and fluctuate in value.

Bond prices are sensitive to changes in interest rates, and a rise in interest rates can cause a decline in their prices.

The prices of gold and other precious metals may be subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be adversely affected by unpredictable international monetary and political developments.

International investing involves special risks including currency risk, increased volatility, political risks, and differences in auditing and other financial standards.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a broad measure of the economy that measures the retail value of goods and services produced in a country.

U.S. Dollar Index indicates the general international value of the dollar by averaging the exchange rates between it and six major world currencies.

S&P 500 Index: An unmanaged capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designated to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. Indexes are unmanaged and investments cannot be made in an index.

Nikkei: A price-weighted index comprised of Japan’s 225 blue-chip companies traded on the Tokyeo Stock Exchange. Indexes are unmanaged and investments cannot be made in an index. 

Euro Stoxx 50 is an index of 50 blue-chip European stocks developed by Stoxx Ltd. and meant to represent sector leaders in the eurozone. Indexes are unmanaged and investments cannot be made in an index.

MSCI ACWI ex USA Index: Captures large- and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed markets countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging markets countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S.

The value of investments and income from them may go down as well as up, and you may not get back the original amount invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 

This is a marketing communication. The views and opinions contained herein are as of the date indicated above, are those of author(s) noted above, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or products. These views are as of the date indicated above and are subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. The information herein is believed to be reliable, but Federated Hermes and its subsidiaries do not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This material is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. This document has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. 

This document is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or advisory services. Figures, unless otherwise indicated, are sourced from Federated Hermes. Federated Hermes has attempted to ensure the accuracy of the data it is reporting, however, it makes no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information reported. The data contained in this document is for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon to make investment decisions. 

Federated Hermes shall not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from the use of any information contained on this document. This document is not investment research and is available to any investment firm wishing to receive it. The distribution of the information contained in this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted and, accordingly, persons into whose possession this document comes are required to make themselves aware of and to observe such restrictions. 

United Kingdom: For Professional investors only. Distributed in the UK by Hermes Investment Management Limited (“HIML”) which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered address: Sixth Floor, 150 Cheapside, London EC2V 6ET. HIML is also a registered investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).

European Union: For Professional investors only. Distributed in the EU by Hermes Fund Managers Ireland Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered address: 7/8 Upper Mount Street, Dublin 2, Ireland, DO2 FT59. 

Australia: This document is for Wholesale Investors only. Distributed by Federated Investors Australia Services Ltd. ACN 161 230 637 (FIAS). HIML does not hold an Australian financial services licence (AFS licence) under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ("Corporations Act"). HIML operates under the relevant class order relief from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) while FIAS holds an AFS licence (Licence Number - 433831).

Japan: This document is for Professional Investors only. Distributed in Japan by Federated Hermes Japan Ltd which is registered as a Financial Instruments Business Operator in Japan (Registration Number: Director General of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 3327), and conducting the Investment Advisory and Agency Business as defined in Article 28 (3) of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (“FIEA”). 

Singapore: This document is for Accredited and Institutional Investors only. Distributed in Singapore by Hermes GPE (Singapore) Pte. Ltd (“HGPE Singapore”). HGPE Singapore is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. 

United States: This information is being provided by Federated Hermes, Inc., Federated Advisory Services Company, Federated Equity Management Company of Pennsylvania, and Federated Investment Management Company, at address 1001 Liberty Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15222-3779, Federated Global Investment Management Corp. at address 101 Park Avenue, Suite 4100, New York, New York 10178-0002, and MDT Advisers at address 125 High Street Oliver Street Tower, 21st Floor Boston, Massachusetts 02110.

Issued and approved by Federated Advisory Services Company

354309780