Investors vote with their feet Investors vote with their feet http://www.federatedhermes.com/us/static/images/fhi/fed-hermes-logo-amp.png http://www.federatedhermes.com/us/daf\images\insights\article\white-house-fountain-small.jpg October 14 2024 October 15 2024

Investors vote with their feet

Prepare for volatility leading up to the election before a year-end rally.

Published October 15 2024
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Video Transcript
00:00
Question: What is your outlook for the rest of this year and how does the presidential election impact it?
00:08
Phil Orlando: Presidential election years tend to be very volatile and choppy in the latter stages going into the election. There were two indicators that we're watching closely. The first is the economy itself. If the economy historically is growing strongly into the election, the incumbent party retains the White House 100 percent of the time. But if the economy is slowing in a recession, the party that's out of power regains control of the White House 100 percent of the time. Now, we're not in recession now, and in my mind, there's zero chance that the National Bureau of Economic Research is going to declare a recession in between now and election day. So we're watching closely things like the Sahm Rule, the leading economic indicators, manufacturing ISM, inverted yield curves to try to get some clue as to the direction of economic growth. The stock market is the other indicator that we're watching closely. Over the course of the last century, if the S&P 500 is collectively positive in the three months going into the election, August, September, October, historically by an average of about 5.5 percent, then the incumbent party has won their bid for reelection 83 percent of the time. But if the stock market is negative in those three months, historically by an average of about 4 percent, then the party that's out of power has regained control of the White House 83 percent of the time. So we'll be watching the volatility of the financial markets very closely. Over the next couple of months. Investors vote with their feet, and those issues will have a bearing on how stocks perform. But once we get past the election and we get all this noise and nonsense behind us, we do expect that stocks will enjoy a powerful end-of-year sigh of relief rally that we believe, in all likelihood, will take stocks up to new record highs.
Tags Politics . Equity .
DISCLOSURES

Views are as of the date above and are subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. These views should not be construed as a recommendation for any specific security or sector.

Sahm Rule: The Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U-3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

Yield Curve: Graph showing the comparative yields of securities in a particular class according to maturity. Securities on the long end of the yield curve have longer maturities.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index is a composite, forward-looking index derived from a monthly survey of U.S. businesses.

S&P 500 Index: An unmanaged capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designated to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. Indexes are unmanaged and investments cannot be made in an index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The value of investments and income from them may go down as well as up, and you may not get back the original amount invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 

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