Recession on the radar

Question: Are we in a recession?

Steve Chiavarone: As it sits today, it's not screaming that we're in a recession right this second, but the warning signs are really starting to pick up. The pickup and unemployment claims thus far that we've seen since the cycle low is indicative of what you would see prior to a recession. The inflation readings, housing starts are starting to signal a warning sign. And as we get further rate hikes, we think that the yield curve, we like to look at the federal funds rate versus the 10-year yield, that's starting to show some signs of risk to come. So the story is inflation is still hot, which is going to precipitate, continued fed hawkishness. And again, we're starting to see those signs of recessions start to build, and we expect to see more signs as the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy.