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5 minute read
2 minute watch
The 2024 presidential election could trigger an end-of-year rally.
3 minute read
We believe next year could present compelling opportunities within high yield.
Thanksgiving brings increased travel, falling prices and rallying financial markets.
7 minute read
The economy and markets can't take on much more debt without getting sick.
Despite Biden’s terrible polling, Democrats performed well in off-year elections, which should worry the GOP.
Markets are serving up rallies for the holidays.
These stocks are well positioned to thrive in a higher-for-longer environment.
Despite high rates, the large amount of maturing debt in the coming years is not a crisis.
Reasons to believe the equity rally has legs.
2 minute read
The $2.1 trillion in excess consumer savings is dwindling.
Financial markets rally on perceived Fed pause.
Weak jobs report pushes Fed to sidelines.
8 minute read
Will the stock and bond rallies have staying power?
The Fed didn't hike. That doesn't mean it's done.
The Fed wants more time and data as it looks to December's meeting.
6 minute read
Will it keep the Fed in play?
Geopolitics are trumping the economy and earnings among investor worries.
9 minute read
Though it is also very dark in the middle of the night.
Dividends are working, even when out of favor.
Back-to-School sales were soft, but consumers are spending elsewhere.
A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer
After weathering the storm, the housing market is poised to boost growth despite Fed headwinds.
4 minute watch
Dividend performance follows a natural rotation.
Employment, inflation and bonds combine for twists and turns for the journey of Fed policy.
It's not just the pilot who is confused as markets wrestle with yields.
As markets stumble forward into earnings, winners and losers likely to emerge.
4 minute read
Disruptions minor so far amid a global outlook that's a bit meh.
Being defensive in credit may mean a little pain for a bigger potential gain.
But overall labor-market picture is mixed.
International dividend payers have come through a lost decade.
The bond market used to be dull...
More housing should increase affordability.
Equity markets have popped this year—but not for everyone.
Yet another shift in the Fed's SEP has the markets again playing defense.
Rates may be resetting higher but that doesn't mean stocks must suffer.
Wage inflation could keep the Fed engaged.
Evidence suggests the move up in longer yields is nearing an end.
Investors may want to take a fresh look at the dividend investing space.
1 minute watch
Mortgage-backed securities may become more attractive relative to credit.
When global investors think Asia, they're increasingly thinking India.
Fed plans to keep interest rates higher for longer.
3 minute watch
As the Fed continues quantitative tightening, spreads widen.
The Fed opts against raising rates, but doesn't rule out another hike this year.
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
With Growth a crowded and expensive trade, might Value offer better value?
School spending slows while inflation rises.
China's vehicle manufacturers soon might take the global pole position.
Moderating core inflation doesn't ease consumer concerns about everyday prices.
Maintaining cautiously optimistic stance as macro concerns fade.
Data point in different directions.
Lots of reasons to expect all-important spending to hold up.
Strong back-to-school shopping season bodes well for holiday retail
But can the rise in workers' negotiating power since Covid 19 continue?
Unloved sectors may be setting up nicely.
Softer job growth could prevent the Fed from hiking again.
Fed Chair Powell addressed inflation targets and market expectations in Jackson Hole.
Contrarian approaches may offer a missing piece to investor portfolios.
Let's hope so because massive and growing deficits are spooking markets.
Powell uses Jackson Hole keynote to reiterate Fed’s vigilance to lower inflation.
They've stabilized somewhat but still face pressures.
Spoiler: People remain paramount.
The rapidly developing peninsular country has 3 factors going for it.
And has a lot of firepower left.
Buyable entry point emerging for stocks.
The conditions suppressing the IPO market since 2021 appear to be subsiding.
The evidence so far suggests not a lot.
40 minute listen
The past, present and future of dividend investing.
The marriage of AI and quantum computers could take things to unimaginable levels.
Electric vehicles face bumps in the road to reach their lofty goals.
Rhetorically speaking, China may have long Covid.
For equity investors, peak pessimism presents potential opportunities.
Payroll growth slows, but wages stay hot.
Senior Portfolio Manager R.J. Gallo can think of seven reasons.
Its potential, for good and for bad, is just starting to be appreciated.
The new regulations for money funds don't change their value proposition.
Fed may remain vigilant.
Might this rally be due for some consolidation?
With the impact of its tightening still not apparent, the Fed opted for another modest rate hike.
Upgrading year-end S&P target to 5,000 as rocky landing scenario nears end.
The U.S. is likely already feeling the predicted “rocky landing.”
Recession odds have fallen.
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
High inflation hurts everyone.
Consensus has taken a beating but is still standing.
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
Waiting for the program to go bust isn’t an option.
It’s Christmas in July for equities. Will the Fed be a Scrooge?
Investors should watch corporate earnings.
The positives and negatives of the new SEC money market amendments.
Why we think Japan could finally outperform after three lost decades.
Defensive positioning didn’t hurt the first half. In the second half, it may help.
A mild recession may be inevitable.
But strong enough for the Fed to hike yet again.
The consumer is between tough headwinds and promising tailwinds.
The first half was a consensus killer; will the second half be one too?
Higher-for-longer rates can be beneficial for dividend strategies.
The markets have finally listened to hawkish Fed speak.
Will tech stocks cool after torrid first-half surge?
Don’t fight the Fed. Don’t fight the tape either.
As global central banks take different paths, where might investors look?
As ‘Rocky Landing’ enters final phases, equity market remains upwardly biased.
The importance of planning ahead
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
The consumer has a lot more firepower than many appreciate.
Dichotomy between nominal and core inflation declines keeps Fed engaged.
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
The Fed skipped a rate hike but suggested more could come.
Thanks to ChatGPT, investors want to know how to capitalize on generative AI.
The current U.S. immigration system is an inadequate solution to population decline.
There’s more than one way to forecast a recession. Our investment pros explain the indicators they watch.
The pain trade is up. The late '90s' parallels are eerie.
Our southern neighbor is firing on all cylinders.
A hot headline increase of 339,000 jobs in May but colder details put Fed in wait-and-see mode.
A very narrow market trading at extremes makes for discomfort.
Spending on discretionary luxury and staples can offer refuge in this environment.
Following the official suspension of the federal debt limit, expect the U.S. Treasury to issue a massive amount of securities.
Regional bank collapses fueled inflows to money market funds.
The office credit market is in trouble, but the broad CRE sector appears healthy.
Emerging markets may show long-term opportunity for investors.
A strong consumer and robust labor market aren't so fun for the Fed.
Europe may have the momentum, valuation and growth to continue to outperform.
Inconsistent economic reports cloud the path of U.S. growth.
The bump in April retail sales belies a deceleration of consumer spending.
Might stocks offering 'growth at reasonable prices' provide refuge?
While the markets seem to expect the Fed to reverse course, rates may stay higher for longer.
Is the dollar's reserve currency status in danger?
And the case for bond returns is getting stronger.
Investors grow impatient waiting for the big downturn that may never fully come.
After one of the worst years ever for bonds, what might lure back investors who bailed?
The Fed may be done hiking, but its subsequent pause could last awhile.
That could determine if above- or below-average historical returns are likely.
Expect a few diversions before reaching a debt-ceiling resolution.
Downside risks are rising in the current environment.
Barring the emergence of more bullish data, we expect the Fed to pause rate hikes this year.
Opportunities as varied as countries that fall under the emerging markets umbrella.
Looming risks make it hard to assess where markets go next.
The Fed raised rates again, but hinted it soon might be time to take a breather.
Munis may see heightened demand this year.
What's behind the substantial rise in assets of money market vehicles?
GDP growth slows, but inflation remains elevated
With volatile markets ahead, stocks enter a period of limbo.
With so many mixed messages, no wonder investors are confused.
43 minute listen
Stubborn inflation, strong consumption data and a robust labor market are clouding the economy’s path.
Bond markets are caught in a variety of crosswinds.
Is the debate much ado about nothing or a slow-moving train wreck?
Slower growth and stubborn inflation argue for patience and selectivity.
Investors may find value in high-quality bonds.
We see GDP growth slowing over the balance of 2023.
Perils lurk but so does the potential for upside surprises.
Volatile markets can offer opportunities.
Banking sector turmoil has raised recession risks.
Fed rate hikes finally may be starting to bite.
Mounting clues that the economy has reached a turning point.
Maintaining cautiously constructive stance amid confusing outlook.
As the global panic subsides, patient investors may find opportunities.
The Federal Reserve’s dual function as regulator and policy-setter has been on display.
Should investors buy the dips or sell the rips as we approach earnings season?
For as long as the economy is stronger for longer.
Evaluating nonfinancial factors contributing to the fall of Silicon Valley Bank.
Will the Federal Reserve pivot from its fight against inflation?
Not all regional banks are caught up in the turmoil.
Fed Chair Powell made the case for another quarter-point hike amid the banking turmoil.
Simmering post-pandemic issues are raising the temperature.
Americans returning to pre-pandemic driving habits as gas prices come off the boil.
Growth stocks typically do well in low-rate, low-growth environments.
Rapid rate increases exposing issues that were hidden when rates were low.
Silicon Valley Bank's 'Perfect Storm' unlikely to deter Fed.
But banking issues brought to the fore this week are discomforting.
The Fed’s response to the collapse of SVB puts pressure on the Treasury and the FOMC decision next week.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
The beats (hawkish Fed, strong jobs, surprise bank failure) keep coming.
In the IPO market, only the best business models survive.
The still hot labor market all but ensures the Federal Reserve stays aggressive.
12 minute read
Standard models and frameworks are less useful in rocky landings.
The recent pullback after a strong start to ’23 may be just a breather.
The words of the day are “caution” and “patience.”
As Linda discusses inflationary '70s, a guest wonders if the Mister is with her.
U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are pointing in different directions.
Investors have begrudgingly capitulated to a still-hawkish Fed.
Supply and demand dynamics are supporting the municipal bond market.
As the Fed slows rate hikes, the ECB is staying the course.
The tragic Russia/Ukraine war could keep energy prices and inflation elevated.
As long as Americans keep spending, higher for longer may rule the day.
A varied macro-economic environment calls for a defensive strategy.
The global economic picture is setting up to look a lot like last year's.
The only good news is both seem much closer to a better future.
It starts with China. Other forces also are at work.
A revived Chinese economy faces global opportunities and challenges.
Combined with persistent inflation, Fed likely to remain vigilant.
Inflation, consumer strength move bonds closer to the Fed. Stocks still keeping some distance.
The Fed may pause this year, but a pivot is unlikely.
Europe may have dodged a recession, but a sobering picture could appear in 2024.
The economy is facing stronger headwinds than the markets realize.
Comparing the cost of becoming an adult across decades.
Audiences pondered this market, and Linda's chauffeur, in her travels this week.
Signs suggest Europe’s economy might avoid a serious downturn.
Fundamentals suggest stocks could correct in the coming months before rallying into year-end.
And that's creating challenges for fixed-income positioning.
We're probably not yet at a "just right" stage for stocks, especially of the growth variety.
The surge of hires in January likely keeps the Fed in hawk mode.
Bulls looking past the crosscurrents … for now.
The market is dismissing the Fed's determination to defeat inflation.
Decent headline gross domestic product growth belies weakness in several core components.
Can the equity rally survive deteriorating fundamentals, a tight-as-a-drum job market and inverted yield curve?
An improved high-yield asset class might not flash the same signs for reentry as in past economic downturns.
Persistent inflation and the Fed’s efforts to fight it will lead to a mild recession, but investors can find opportunities across equity, fixed income and cash.
Rancor aside, with ‘extraordinary measures’ the debate over the U.S. debt limit has time to be resolved.
In volatile markets, stock picking and picking your spots may offer investors the best options for returns.
Inflation cooling but labor market remains healthy.
2022 was all about rates; this year is more nuanced.
2022 was tough. 2023 will have its challenges but be perched for opportunities.
Three things to watch in 2023.
Two market indicators suggest equities could enjoy a better year.
Modestly more constructive on stocks as rocky landing approaches final phase.
A flush consumer could make for a slow-cession instead of a recession.
Opportunities can be found in small-cap markets.
But the ISM services decline was a bigger story.
Looks like 3 decades of disinflation are coming to an end.
An earnings and Fed Catch-22 could keep S&P range-bound for coming months.
Amid recession fears and high inflation, seasonal hiring plunges.
Consumers are showing restraint amid still-high inflation.
The Fed pushes back against market expectations.
Pessimistic markets are pricing in low recovery conditions.
China may prioritize security in the global economy.
A quick visit lifted spirits. Will Santa do the same for the markets?
45 minute listen
Silvia Dall’Angelo, Donald Ellenberger and Steve Chiavarone discuss global inflation and whether the markets have already priced in a recession.
College costs have soared.
The U.S. economy is slowing across the board.
The Fed can't like the strong job growth and surge in wages in November.
You have to ask: is he here to hurt or help?
FOMC voters must stick to the data to make their next decision on rates.
Municipal securities have much to offer if the economy slows.
Republicans fail to achieve expected midterm election gains.
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